ETFDesk Daily 12/09/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• BofA/ML : Ten Investment Themes For 2010
• Ken Rogoff: Housing, Unemployment Will Get Worse Before They Get Better
• Mexico hedges against falling oil prices
• Collapse In Tax Withholdings Refutes Improvements In Either Unemployment Or Corporate Profitability
• Dubai debt concerns spread beyond Dubai World
• Ben Bernanke, Treasury Salesman
• Paulson taking the long view on market
• Mexico hedges against falling oil prices

BofA/ML : Ten Investment Themes For 2010 Posted: 08 Dec 2009 02:57 AM PST From Bank of America Merrill Lynch comes investment strategy in the form of ’10 themes for 2010. They feel that next year will be “a genuine watershed” in that it will reveal whether or not this ‘recovery’ is real or whether the fundamentally drawn out weakness typically associated with bear markets will rear its ugly head. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW);buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX); buy iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index Fund (IEO); buy iShares S&P Global Financials (IXG); buy WisdomTree International LargeCap Dividend Fund (DOL); buy Nuveen Municipal Value Fund (NUV); buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund (CEW);buy Direxion Daily 10-Yr Treasury Bear 3x Shares (TYO); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Ken Rogoff: Housing, Unemployment Will Get Worse Before They Get Better Posted: 08 Dec 2009 08:18 AM PST Harvard professor Ken Rogoff on TechTicker today. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS (RTH); buy UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS); sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT); sell iShares DJ US Real Estate (IYR); sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund (RTL); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion Mexico hedges against falling oil prices Posted: 08 Dec 2009 12:06 PM PST The world’s sixth largest oil producer said on Tuesday that it had hedged all its net oil exports for 2010, by buying protection against oil prices falling below $57 a barrel. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP); sell United States Oil Fund LP (USO); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion Collapse In Tax Withholdings Refutes Improvements In Either Unemployment Or Corporate Profitability Posted: 08 Dec 2009 02:26 PM PST Even as the BLS and the administration are trying to cover up the real state of unemployment affairs using assorted semantic gimmicks of just what it means to be unemployed, and as companies provide adjusted EPS numbers, while actual earnings continue to collapse, the true barometer of spending, provided by the Financial Management Service, tax withholdings (net of refunds), continues to paint the truest picture of just what is really happening with both America’s consumer and the ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); buy UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares (TBT); buy Direxion Daily 30-Yr Treasury Bear 3x Shares (TMV); sell PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion Dubai debt concerns spread beyond Dubai World Posted: 08 Dec 2009 11:34 PM PST Fears that Dubai’s debt problems are not limited to troubled state conglomerate ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets (EEM); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion Ben Bernanke, Treasury Salesman Posted: 08 Dec 2009 11:47 PM PST The talk put a floor under the Treasury market, ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion Paulson taking the long view on market Posted: 08 Dec 2009 11:55 PM PST “Our net longs are the highest ever,” Mr Paulson said in a speech in New York on Tuesday. “There are lots more long opportunities than short opportunities in the market. Zero interest rates are a huge tonic,” he added. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion Mexico hedges against falling oil prices Posted: 08 Dec 2009 11:59 PM PST Mexico has taken out a $1bn insurance policy against oil prices falling next year, a clear signal that commodities producers remain wary about the threat of a double-dip recession. The world’s sixth largest oil producer said on Tuesday that it had hedged all its net oil exports for 2010, by buying protection against oil prices falling below $57 a barrel. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell United States Oil Fund LP (USO); sell iShares MSCI-Mexico (EWW); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETFDesk Daily 12/02/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• Dave Rosenberg 12/01/2009 How Can the Recession Be Over?
• Marc Faber: Dubai Was Just The Tip of The Sovereign Default Iceberg
• Deep down, even the fiercest equity bulls must be doubting themselves
• China Longyuan I.P.O. Attracts Billionaire Investor
• Gallup Economic Weekly: Thanksgiving Week Disappoints
• Dubai Panic Sparks Few Deals in Emerging-Market Bonds
• Cyber Monday: A lot of clicking and shopping
• JP MORGAN SAYS TO STAY IN THE RISK TRADE
• Russia Must Cut Rate 2 Points This Month, Gilman Says
• Beijing Gives Nod to Modified Rice

Dave Rosenberg 12/01/2009 How Can the Recession Be Over? Posted: 01 Dec 2009 02:50 AM PST HOW CAN THE RECESSION BE OVER? There are four items that go into the NBER recession call: 1. Employment 2. Real personal income excluding government transfers 3. Industrial production 4. Real sales 3 of the 4 economic indicators that the NBER uses to access business cycles are still in decline ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (SDS); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Marc Faber: Dubai Was Just The Tip of The Sovereign Default Iceberg Posted: 01 Dec 2009 03:49 AM PST Marc Faber warns that further sovereign defaults are ahead. Dubai was just a teaser. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (IGOV); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Deep down, even the fiercest equity bulls must be doubting themselves Posted: 01 Dec 2009 04:31 AM PST We have just had the worst decade’s performance for equity investors on record. Relative to government bonds, equities have been an even bigger disaster. Surely after such a terrible decade for equity investors things can only get better? ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (SDS); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD); buyPIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

China Longyuan I.P.O. Attracts Billionaire Investor Posted: 01 Dec 2009 06:32 AM PST An American billionaire investor, Wilbur L. Ross, plans to buy shares of China Longyuan Power Group, the largest wind power generator in Asia Follow the billionaire – 26% China Weighting in TAN ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF (TAN); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Gallup Economic Weekly: Thanksgiving Week Disappoints Posted: 01 Dec 2009 08:08 AM PST PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup’s Thanksgiving week results tend to confirm fears of a weak holiday sales season as consumer spending was unchanged from the prior week, even though it included Friday and Saturday of the Black Friday weekend. At the same time, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index and its Job Creation Index were essentially unchanged from the prior week. A rather gloomy consumer mood and consumer spending — trailing last year’s financial crisis-depressed comparables by 25% – ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS (RTH); sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT); sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund (RTL); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dubai Panic Sparks Few Deals in Emerging-Market Bonds Posted: 01 Dec 2009 09:34 AM PST emerging-market bonds overall have proved very good, though volatile, investments. Investors have endured some stomach-churning drops during the crises, but someone who held a broad basket of those bonds in a mutual fund, which reduces your exposure to individual issuers, has done well. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt (MSD); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Cyber Monday: A lot of clicking and shopping Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:48 PM PST Report says sales rose 14% over last year and shoppers on average spent more online than they did on Black Friday. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Internet HOLDRS (HHH); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

JP MORGAN SAYS TO STAY IN THE RISK TRADE Posted: 01 Dec 2009 11:48 PM PST The latest portfolio strategy from JP Morgan continues to favor the bullish side of the trade. They see the Dubai dip as an opportunity to buy into some emerging market names at a discount. Dubai does little to change their outlook as the risk of contagion remains very low. This means the risk trade lives to fight another day. Thus, they continue to favor a broad overweight of emerging market bonds, credit, equities and currencies. In other words, they like the highest of t ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC); buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN); buy S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); buy iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets (EEM); buy MFS Government Markets Income Trust (MGF); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Russia Must Cut Rate 2 Points This Month, Gilman Says Posted: 01 Dec 2009 11:57 PM PST The central bank on Nov. 24 cut the benchmark a ninth time since April to a record low 9 percent in an effort to reduce the extra return on ruble investments and cap speculative gains in the currency that are hurting exporters. Even after policy easing, Russia remains a “no-brainer for the short-term carry trade,” Gilman said, as the country’s benchmark is still higher than rates in Brazil, India and China. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Currency Shares Russian Ruble Trust (XRU); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Beijing Gives Nod to Modified Rice

Posted: 02 Dec 2009 12:00 AM PST

China’s government declared two strains of genetically modified rice safe to produce and consume, taking a major step toward endorsing the use of biotechnology in the staple food crop of billions of people in Asia.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors–Agribusiness ETF (MOO);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETFDesk Daily 12/01/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• 5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF
• Dave Rosenberg 11/30/2009 KEEP AN EYE ON THE CREDIT MARKETS AGAIN
• Tail Risk in Sovereign CDS
• How overbuilt is China?
• Why Black Friday Data Points To A Grim Holiday Season
• Hussman: 80% Chance Of A Market Crash Over The Next Year
• Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010
• Morgan Stanley: Here Comes A Brutal 2010
• GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009

 

5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:15 AM PST Strategists at Credit Suisse are currently expecting a near-term equity sell-off, but are not yet concerned about the downturn evolving into a larger bear market decline. Why have they turned a bit more cautious? A series of psychological, fundamental and technical events: ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ); sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 11/30/2009 KEEP AN EYE ON THE CREDIT MARKETS AGAIN Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:42 AM PST Buying call options on volatility has rarely looked as attractive as is the case today if this Dubai situation turns into something even fractionally similar to what happened in places like Thailand, Russia or Argentina. Once the complacency is shaken out of the market, which in our view would be a good thing, it is going to give those who have been skeptical over this “liquidity-induced” rally a chance to take out our rulers and sharpen our pencils. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ); buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Tail Risk in Sovereign CDS

Posted: 30 Nov 2009 04:32 AM PST

Will the tail wag the dog again? Or, more specifically, will the rise of sovereign credit default swaps drive pricing in government bond markets? The Dubai shock has highlighted disconnects between the two markets. The traditional flight-to-safety bid led U.S. Treasurys and U.K. gilts to rally sharply. But the nature of the shock – a reminder that governments have balance-sheet constraints – pushed up the cost of insuring even high-quality sovereigns against default. That suggests

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (IGOV);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

How overbuilt is China? Posted: 30 Nov 2009 05:32 AM PST LATELY, Tyler Cowen has been pushing an Austrian view of economic activity in China, namely, that government policies are generating far too much investment in certain sectors of the Chinese economy, setting the stage for an eventual collapse as resources are re-allocated back to productive uses. Over the weekend, Mr Cowen developed the argument in a New York Times piece: ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI); sell Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF (TAO); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Why Black Friday Data Points To A Grim Holiday Season Posted: 30 Nov 2009 07:21 AM PST If you were counting on what Glenn Reynolds calls “the retail support brigade” to come riding over the hills, you might want to rethink. After last year turned in one of the worst holiday shopping seasons in decades, people were hoping that things might perk up this year, but Black Friday’s results don’t look too good for retailers. Sales were up a paltry 0.5% from last year, and that only because a lot more people came out bargain-hunting. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS (RTH); sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT); sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund (RTL); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Hussman: 80% Chance Of A Market Crash Over The Next Year Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:13 PM PST Fund manager John Hussman says he under-estimated how little investors have learned in the market crashes of recent years and thus has missed much of the market upside this year ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA); buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT); buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (SDS); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM); buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010 Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:06 AM PST Britain risks becoming the first country in the G10 bloc of major economies to risk capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis over coming months, according to a client note by Morgan Stanley. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (IGOV); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion   Morgan Stanley: Here Comes A Brutal 2010 Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:16 AM PST Morgan Stanley’s head of European research Teun Draaisma is out with a market outlook for 2010, and it’s not pretty. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P Europe 350 Index (IEV); sell iShares MSCI-EAFE (EFA); sell iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index Fund (SCZ); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion   GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009 Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:46 AM PST GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009 ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Greater China Fund, Inc. (GCH); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETFDesk Daily 11/25/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• J.P. Morgan: U.S. Dollar Carry Trade a ‘Half Truth’
• US shoppers wait for sales
• As Black Friday Looms, Will Consumers Show Up?
• Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’?
• Closed-end fund discounts explained
• Thai Capital Fund Announces Third Quarter Earnings
• Round-Up of Holiday Spending Surveys, Reports
• Most global banks are still unsafe, warns S&P
• Newspaper circulation may be worse than it looks
• Russian central bank cuts interest rates to record low
• Time to Prick the Ag Commodities Bubble
• Mayors Sound Alarm Over Drop in City Revenues
• Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast
• Debunking carry-trade denial
• UK GDP revised…
• More bid rumours in the UK utility sector

J.P. Morgan: U.S. Dollar Carry Trade a ‘Half Truth’ Posted: 24 Nov 2009 02:37 AM PST By the usual cover story test – a trend reverses once it becomes a cover story in the popular press – the dollar’s decline should have ended this fall. But despite the bearish dollar patter, there is little evidence that views are so extreme or positions so short that they should impede the current bear trend. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund; buy ProShares Ultra Euro; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

US shoppers wait for sales Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:14 AM PST US shopping patterns for early November suggest budget-conscious consumers are holding back their Christmas spending, while waiting to be enticed by special events such as this weekend’s post-Thanksgiving sales. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; sell Claymore/Robb Report Global Luxury Index ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

As Black Friday Looms, Will Consumers Show Up? Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:43 AM PST Black Friday marks the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, but retailers still aren’t sure how strong a showing consumers will make. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’? Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:44 AM PST If you own any shares in alternative energy companies I should start dumping them NOW. The conspiracy behind the Anthropogenic Global Warming myth (aka AGW; aka ManBearPig) has been suddenly, brutally and quite deliciously exposed after a hacker broke into the computers at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (aka Hadley CRU) and released 61 megabites of confidential files onto the internet. (Hat tip: Watts Up With That) ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio; sell Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Closed-end fund discounts explained Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:50 AM PST The discount is what makes closed-end funds such interesting and potentially profitable investment vehicles Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Thai Capital Fund Announces Third Quarter Earnings Posted: 24 Nov 2009 04:00 AM PST Thai Capital Fund Announces Third Quarter Earnings ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Thai Capital Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Round-Up of Holiday Spending Surveys, Reports Posted: 24 Nov 2009 04:43 AM PST If the following round-up of holiday spending surveys and news reports (with salient quotes) is anything to go by, those who have been counting on a V-shaped recovery in the (consumer-dependent) U.S. economy might want to reconsider ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; sell Claymore/Robb Report Global Luxury Index ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Most global banks are still unsafe, warns S&P Posted: 24 Nov 2009 05:35 AM PST Standard & Poor’s has given warning that nearly all of the world’s big banks lack sufficient capital to cover trading and investment exposure, risking further downgrades over the next 18 months unless they move swiftly to beef up their defences. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Financial Preferred Portfolio; sell iShares S&P Global Financials; sell iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Newspaper circulation may be worse than it looks Posted: 24 Nov 2009 05:54 AM PST These looser standards are especially helpful to a newspaper if it sells an “electronic edition.” That can include a subscriber-only Web site, such as what The Wall Street Journal has, or it can be a digital replica of a newspaper’s printed product. Several dozen publications, including USA Today, sell access to these daily “e-editions” that show how the news was laid out in print. Under the new auditing standards, if a newspaper sells a “bundled” subscription to both the print ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Dynamic Media Portfolio; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Russian central bank cuts interest rates to record low Posted: 24 Nov 2009 06:06 AM PST Russia’s central bank has cut interest rates from 9.5% to a record low of 9% in a widely expected move. It is the ninth time the bank has cut rates since April this year as it bids to stimulate demand. In an accompanying statement, the central bank said it had room to cut as inflation had been easing back. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Currency Shares Russian Ruble Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Time to Prick the Ag Commodities Bubble Posted: 24 Nov 2009 08:40 AM PST Investors can play a likely falloff in ag prices by shorting an exchange-traded fund, such as the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (ticker: DBA) or, as a secondary play, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO). (Alternately, investors could buy put options in order to bet on declines in ETF values.) ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund; sell Market Vectors–Agribusiness ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Mayors Sound Alarm Over Drop in City Revenues Posted: 24 Nov 2009 02:52 PM PST Even as economists declare the recession over, local revenues continue to fall. That’s because the lion’s share of their receipts — sales, income and property taxes — are connected to the job market and real-estate prices. Jobs and real-estate prices are expected to lag the broader economic recovery, reducing city revenues for months or years after the technical end of the recession. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast Posted: 24 Nov 2009 11:54 PM PST Spending by U.S. consumers rebounded in October more than anticipated, an indication that mounting unemployment has yet to stifle American’s willingness to buy. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares Dynamic Retail Portfolio; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Debunking carry-trade denial Posted: 25 Nov 2009 12:04 AM PST In the last few weeks a host of different banks have stepped forward to question both the depth and degree of the current dollar carry trade. Among them have been Goldman Sachs, UBS and Barclays Capital – all claiming the risks of executing speculative dollar-funded carry trades still outweigh the potential returns, meaning the trade isn’t half as popular as the market is making out, nor is it contributing to any such thing as a global asset bubble. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

UK GDP revised… Posted: 25 Nov 2009 12:43 AM PST Still, there is some good news in today’s release. The inventory run-down may have ended and should make a positive contribution in the fourth quarter. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-U.K.; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

More bid rumours in the UK utility sector Posted: 25 Nov 2009 12:56 AM PST Rumours of predatory interest in the UK utility sector has been swirling for a few weeks now with several names mentioned including United Utilities and Severn Trent. However, the speculation has now focused on one company: International Power, which owns and operates power plants across Europe, the Persian Gulf, the US, Australia, Pakistan, Thailand and Indonesia. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore S&P Global Water Index ETF; buy PowerShares Global Water Portfolio; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

ETFDesk Daily 11/23/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• “Black Friday” deals may not signal retail comeback
• Banks’ Capital Adequacy Ratios Still Need Improvement – S&P
• Bets rise on rich country bond defaults
• Dave Rosenberg 11/23/2009 Utility in Utilities

 

“Black Friday” deals may not signal retail comeback Posted: 22 Nov 2009 01:07 PM PST CHICAGO (Reuters) – When the U.S. holiday shopping season kicks off on the day after Thanksgiving, retailers can expect to see millions of less frightened, but even more bargain-hungry customers cross their thresholds. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Banks’ Capital Adequacy Ratios Still Need Improvement – S&P Posted: 22 Nov 2009 10:59 PM PST Most major banks across the world still don’t have enough capital to comfortably maintain their credit ratings despite recent improvements, Standard & Poor’s Corp. said in a report Monday, as it introduced a new framework to track banks’ capital adequacy and called into question the usefulness of standard market and regulatory measures. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR-Financial; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Bets rise on rich country bond defaults Posted: 23 Nov 2009 12:05 AM PST The volume of activity in sovereign credit default swaps – which measure the cost to insure against bond defaults – linked to the US, UK and Japan have doubled in the past year because of concerns about their public finances. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares MSCI-Italy; sell iShares S&P/Citigroup 1-3 Year International Treasury Bond Fund; sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 11/23/2009 Utility in Utilities

Posted: 23 Nov 2009 12:46 AM PST

In a deflationary environment, price protection from regulators is always key as is yield to investors. At 4.5%, not only is the dividend yield in the utilities sector the second highest among all S&P 500 groups (only telecom is higher at 5.7%) but is more than double the yield of the S&P 500; at least as high as what you can garner from the debt of most utility companies; and is more than the yield you can get from the long bond (and more than twice the yield of the 5-year Treasury note).

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR-Utilities; buy iShares S&P Global Infrastructure Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETFDesk Daily 11/19/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

 

• How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market?
• Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap
• John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold
• Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’
• Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!
• The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update
• The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update
• The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer
• A yuan-sided argument
• Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers
• Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets
• Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch
• VIX of the VIX
• The World’s Largest Shopping Mall
• BofA Merrill cuts ’10 global semiconductor growth view
• Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt
• Roach: China’s Market Will Crumble
• Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference
• Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise
• Brazil sparks wider currency control fears

 

How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market? Posted: 18 Nov 2009 02:55 AM PST great chart from The Big Picture blog ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:32 AM PST Central bank hoarding of gold in 1970 ushered in the famous gold bull market. With central banks likely to be net gold purchasers in H2 2009 for the first time since 1988 the same starting gun is ringing out today. The price at which the USD would be fully backed by gold (as it was during the peak of the 70s mania) is $6,300. So there is a case for gold being “cheap.” Moreover, the 70s bull market was facilitated by tight energy markets, overly accommodative central banks and nerv ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:35 AM PST John Paulson, who scored about $20 billion of profits for his hedge fund between 2007 and early 2009 wagering against the housing market and financial companies, is launching a fund dedicated to buying up shares of gold miners and other bullion-related investments, according to three investors. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF; buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’ Posted: 18 Nov 2009 06:35 AM PST Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; sell iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets; sell iShares MSCI-EAFE; buy UBS E Tracs CMCI Food Tr; buy iPath Dow Jones AIG Sugar Total Return Sub Index; buy iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund; buyPIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein! Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:12 AM PST Classic title Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:25 AM PST The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Asia Pacific Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:26 AM PST The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Greater China Fund, Inc.; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:31 AM PST The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Taiwan Greater China Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

A yuan-sided argument Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:59 AM PST China allowed the yuan to rise by 21% against the dollar in the three years to July 2008, but since then it has more or less kept the rate fixed. As a result, the yuan’s trade-weighted value has been dragged down this year by the sickly dollar, while many other currencies have soared. Since March the Brazilian real and the South Korean won have gained 42% and 36% respectively against the yuan, seriously eroding those countries’ competitiveness. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers Posted: 18 Nov 2009 09:43 AM PST Some retailers are finding ways to profit even in the face of declining sales. On Tuesday, luxury retailer Saks Inc. reported a surprise profit and Target Corp. notched its first rise in year-over-year net income in eight quarters. But both companies reported declines in sales at stores open for a year, and predicted more of the same in the current quarter, which includes Christmas. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets Posted: 18 Nov 2009 01:14 PM PST With the Fed in a holding pattern, markets have looked to economic data for their biggest moves in the last six months and that trend is likely to continue, Goldman Sachs economists said. “With the unemployment rate high, we expect the markets to continue to focus on employment data for indications of labor market improvement,” Goldman economists wrote in a research note. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR-Financial; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell iShares Russell 2000; buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:17 PM PST Investors are piling into any commodity they can get their hands on as the dollar crumbles and real assets spike. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore/Clear Global Timber Index ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

VIX of the VIX Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:32 PM PST The volatility of the CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) in recent days is especially noteworthy as the measure of implied volatility in the S & P 500 Index (SPX) is once again bouncing near year-to-date lows. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The World’s Largest Shopping Mall Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:37 PM PST A cautionary tale of capitalist hubris. An amazing video from PBS. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; sell SPDR S&P China ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

BofA Merrill cuts ’10 global semiconductor growth view Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:50 PM PST BofA Merrill Lynch lowered its 2010 growth forecast for global semiconductor industry and downgraded ten chipmakers, including Intel Corp (INTC.O), turning more cautious on the group on expectations of a modest overshoot in global supply chain inventories. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF; sell iShares Goldman Sachs Semiconductor Index; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:15 AM PST San Francisco-based Wells Fargo agreed to buy back all auction rate securities it sold through its brokerage unit before Feb. 13, 2008, the association said in a statement. The bank also will pay a $1.9 million fine and reimburse investors who sold their holdings at a discount after the market collapsed. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Roach: China’s Market Will Crumble Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:42 AM PST Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach still believes in the long-term China story, but he warns investors to wait for a much-needed market correction first. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; sell SPDR S&P China ETF; sell Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap Index ETF; buy UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:53 AM PST Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:00 AM PST That’s why I recommend you spread your risk and go with a well-diversified, closed-end fund that invests in hundreds of Senior Secured Floating Rate bonds at once. Such an approach ensures the impact of any bankruptcy is minimal. It also provides daily liquidity. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy First Trust/Four Corners Senior Floating Rate Income II; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Brazil sparks wider currency control fears Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:03 AM PST Brazil moved overnight to close a loophole that had allowed investors to avoid a 2 per cent tax on foreign investment in equities and bonds announced last month. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

 

 

 

 

ETFDesk Daily 11/16/2009

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• China accuses US of fuelling ‘huge carry trade’
• What Do Bond Traders Think They Know
• The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses
• Governments tug hard on growth levers
• October Retail Sales Beat Expectations, But All Growth Was Just Autos

 

China accuses US of fuelling ‘huge carry trade’ Posted: 15 Nov 2009 04:28 AM PST The US Federal Reserve is fuelling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned on Sunday just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

What Do Bond Traders Think They Know Posted: 15 Nov 2009 09:09 AM PST It’d be interesting to know what the people buying these bonds think is going to happen. Not inflation, based on these yields. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust; buy iShares Lehman 10-20 Year Treasury Bond Fund; sell iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund; sell PIMCO Broad U.S. TIPS Index Fund; sell PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses Posted: 15 Nov 2009 12:22 PM PST Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; buy Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund; buy Aberdeen Australia Equity Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Governments tug hard on growth levers Posted: 15 Nov 2009 11:59 PM PST WASHINGTON (Reuters) – If the global recession is over, consumers must have missed the memo. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

October Retail Sales Beat Expectations, But All Growth Was Just Autos Posted: 16 Nov 2009 12:13 AM PST Advance October retail sales grew faster than expected, at 1.4% month over month, but all the growth disappears if you strip away auto related sales. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETFDesk Daily 11/9/2009

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• Personal insolvency rises by 28%
• Michael Milken Sounds Warning on Sovereign Debt
• Bears Not Cowed by Buffett
• Goldman Sachs, primary unfolding Q3 themes
• Catering to the Recession Mentality
• Breakfast with Dave 11/9/2009

 

Personal insolvency rises by 28% Posted: 08 Nov 2009 10:35 PM PST A record number of people were declared insolvent in England and Wales in the third quarter of 2009, according to figures from the Insolvency Service. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares MSCI-U.K.; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Michael Milken Sounds Warning on Sovereign Debt Posted: 08 Nov 2009 10:37 PM PST At Imperial Capital’s 3rd Global Opportunity Conference in New York Thursday, Michael Milken spoke about the causes of the financial crisis and what investors in the U.S. should watch out for in future investments. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares Emerging Market Bond Exchange Traded Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Bears Not Cowed by Buffett Posted: 08 Nov 2009 10:51 PM PST Even Berkshire’s deal for Burlington Northern doesn’t reverse the technical breakdown in the transports and the broad market. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares DJ US Transportation; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Sachs, primary unfolding Q3 themes Posted: 08 Nov 2009 10:54 PM PST good read Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Catering to the Recession Mentality Posted: 09 Nov 2009 12:14 AM PST The recession may be over but companies that cater to consumers believe people are digging in for a long, frugal winter. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Breakfast with Dave 11/9/2009 Posted: 09 Nov 2009 12:35 AM PST Market Musings & Data Deciphering from David Rosenberg ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; sell S&P 500 SPDR; buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust; buyDirexion Daily 10-Yr Treasury Bull 3x Shares; buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Monday, 10/5 Recap of Consumer related news

More on consumer spending, jobs, and the economic recovery

Roubini: Forget The V-Shaped Recovery…But Get Ready For The U-Shaped Recovery! ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1214 )
Nouriel Roubini used to be known Dr. Doom. These days, however, he insists he is a “realist.” What does that mean? Well, it means that he doesn’t think we’re in for a V shaped recovery but he doesn’t think we’re going L shaped either.

Is the Economic Storm Over? Consumers Weigh in on the “New Frugality” ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1216 )
Jane Crossan, Vice President, Practice Leader, Financial Services, The Nielsen Company For the past six months we’ve seen and heard about the recovery of the U.S. market: the DOW has ticked up and the Fed chair has said the recession is “likely over.” But ultimately, the consumer will determine when our economy is back on track when you consider that consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

The end of Kobe beef burgers, or how thrift stole Christmas ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1218 )
Frugal is the new black, according to everyone from David Rosenberg to the US consumer and the beleaguered retailers. Consider the following piece, which appeared in the New York Times on Friday:

Rethinking the American consumer ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1219) ONE thing that’s worth remembering as we discuss the recovery (something I often have to remind myself) is that American spending on consumption was primarily focused on what one might call necessities.

Is the U.S. job market broken? ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1220 ) Is there a “new normal” for the American labor market? Are the days of an unemployment rate of just 4 to 5 percent a thing of the past? That is the contention of some economists who see the sharp rise in joblessness during this recession as a warning sign of structural changes in the job market.

Unemployment Becoming Leading Indicator for Pimco’s New Normal ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1223 ) Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) — Mohamed El-Erian says economists are wrong to dismiss unemployment as merely a lagging indicator, a sign of where the economy has been. For the chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., the 26-year high jobless rate is also an omen of things to come.

More on the Consumer & Unemployment

More links on the state of the American Consumer and today’s ugly BLS Nonfarm payroll report:

U.S. bank card delinquencies hit record high ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1199)
Delinquencies in U.S. bank cards rose in the second quarter to 5 percent of all accounts, while delinquencies in direct auto loans showed improvement, dropping to 2.46 percent, the American Bankers Association said on Thursday.

The Downside of Reducing Debt ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1200 )
The story of the past few years in a few sentences: U.S. financial firms, other businesses and families went on a borrowing binge. It was fun. Lenders and investors lent too freely and didn’t charge enough to cover risks they were taking. When borrowers couldn’t pay the loans and the collateral they pledged wasn’t sufficient to cover the loans, a lot of lenders lost money. That wasn’t fun.

Rosenberg: “We are certainly in a deflationary state” ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1201 )
Fueled by overcapacity, shrinking credit, reduced corporate spending and falling consumer demand, Deflation is taking root in global economies

Recession Rising Like Phoenix With Area Delinquencies Surging ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1203 )
Drive up to the Peaks Corporate Park in north Scottsdale, Arizona, and the only person you’ll encounter at the luxury office complex is a security guard.

INSTANT VIEW : September payrolls fall by 263K ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1205 )
U.S. employers cut a deeper-than-expected 263,000 jobs in September, lifting the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent, according to a government report on Friday that fueled fears the weak labor market could undermine economic recovery.

Early Job Cuts Worse Than First Thought, as More Companies Go Belly Up ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1207 )
The loss of 263,000 jobs last month brings the total drop in U.S. employment to 7.6 million since the recession began — and revisions suggest the losses could turn out to be even steeper

Comparing This Recession to Previous Ones: Job Losses ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1208 )
The chart above shows job losses in this recession compared to recent ones, with the dark blue line representing the current downturn. Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has had a net loss of about 5.2 percent of its nonfarm payroll jobs.

Wages, Hours Stagnate As Stiglitz Warns Of Deflation ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1209 )
With unemployment on the rise in September, average hourly wages grew by a single penny, to $18.67. The length of the average workweek fell back by 0.1 hours to its historic low of 33 hours, first reached in June.

Chart: Average Job Search Hits All-Time High as Chronic Unemployment Sets In ( http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1210 )
As the jobless rate has continued its stubborn climb, reaching 9.8 percent today, chronic unemployment has been a major driver. The pace of layoffs has slowed from the fall and winter months, but companies aren’t yet adding new workers. If you get laid off, you risk finding yourself in a tough spot.