ETFDesk Daily 11/25/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

  • J.P. Morgan: U.S. Dollar Carry Trade a ‘Half Truth’
  • US shoppers wait for sales
  • As Black Friday Looms, Will Consumers Show Up?
  • Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’?
  • Closed-end fund discounts explained
  • Thai Capital Fund Announces Third Quarter Earnings
  • Round-Up of Holiday Spending Surveys, Reports
  • Most global banks are still unsafe, warns S&P
  • Newspaper circulation may be worse than it looks
  • Russian central bank cuts interest rates to record low
  • Time to Prick the Ag Commodities Bubble
  • Mayors Sound Alarm Over Drop in City Revenues
  • Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast
  • Debunking carry-trade denial
  • UK GDP revised…
  • More bid rumours in the UK utility sector
J.P. Morgan: U.S. Dollar Carry Trade a ‘Half Truth’

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 02:37 AM PST

By the usual cover story test – a trend reverses once it becomes a cover story in the popular press – the dollar’s decline should have ended this fall. But despite the bearish dollar patter, there is little evidence that views are so extreme or positions so short that they should impede the current bear trend.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fundbuy ProShares Ultra Euro;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

US shoppers wait for sales

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:14 AM PST

US shopping patterns for early November suggest budget-conscious consumers are holding back their Christmas spending, while waiting to be enticed by special events such as this weekend’s post-Thanksgiving sales.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRSsell SPDR S&P Retail ETFsell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fundsell Claymore/Robb Report Global Luxury Index ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

As Black Friday Looms, Will Consumers Show Up?

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:43 AM PST

Black Friday marks the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, but retailers still aren’t sure how strong a showing consumers will make.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’?

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:44 AM PST

If you own any shares in alternative energy companies I should start dumping them NOW. The conspiracy behind the Anthropogenic Global Warming myth (aka AGW; aka ManBearPig) has been suddenly, brutally and quite deliciously exposed after a hacker broke into the computers at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (aka Hadley CRU) and released 61 megabites of confidential files onto the internet. (Hat tip: Watts Up With That)

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfoliosell Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Closed-end fund discounts explained

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:50 AM PST

The discount is what makes closed-end funds such interesting and potentially profitable investment vehicles

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Thai Capital Fund Announces Third Quarter Earnings

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 04:00 AM PST

Thai Capital Fund Announces Third Quarter Earnings

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Thai Capital Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Round-Up of Holiday Spending Surveys, Reports

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 04:43 AM PST

If the following round-up of holiday spending surveys and news reports (with salient quotes) is anything to go by, those who have been counting on a V-shaped recovery in the (consumer-dependent) U.S. economy might want to reconsider

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; sell Claymore/Robb Report Global Luxury Index ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Most global banks are still unsafe, warns S&P

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 05:35 AM PST

Standard & Poor’s has given warning that nearly all of the world’s big banks lack sufficient capital to cover trading and investment exposure, risking further downgrades over the next 18 months unless they move swiftly to beef up their defences.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Financial Preferred Portfolio; sell iShares S&P Global Financials; sell iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Newspaper circulation may be worse than it looks

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 05:54 AM PST

These looser standards are especially helpful to a newspaper if it sells an “electronic edition.” That can include a subscriber-only Web site, such as what The Wall Street Journal has, or it can be a digital replica of a newspaper’s printed product. Several dozen publications, including USA Today, sell access to these daily “e-editions” that show how the news was laid out in print. Under the new auditing standards, if a newspaper sells a “bundled” subscription to both the print

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Dynamic Media Portfolio;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion


Russian central bank cuts interest rates to record low

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 06:06 AM PST

Russia’s central bank has cut interest rates from 9.5% to a record low of 9% in a widely expected move. It is the ninth time the bank has cut rates since April this year as it bids to stimulate demand. In an accompanying statement, the central bank said it had room to cut as inflation had been easing back.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Currency Shares Russian Ruble Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Time to Prick the Ag Commodities Bubble

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 08:40 AM PST

Investors can play a likely falloff in ag prices by shorting an exchange-traded fund, such as the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (ticker: DBA) or, as a secondary play, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO). (Alternately, investors could buy put options in order to bet on declines in ETF values.)

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fundsell Market Vectors–Agribusiness ETF;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Mayors Sound Alarm Over Drop in City Revenues

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 02:52 PM PST

Even as economists declare the recession over, local revenues continue to fall. That’s because the lion’s share of their receipts — sales, income and property taxes — are connected to the job market and real-estate prices. Jobs and real-estate prices are expected to lag the broader economic recovery, reducing city revenues for months or years after the technical end of the recession.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast

Posted: 24 Nov 2009 11:54 PM PST

Spending by U.S. consumers rebounded in October more than anticipated, an indication that mounting unemployment has yet to stifle American’s willingness to buy.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares Dynamic Retail Portfolio;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Debunking carry-trade denial

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 12:04 AM PST

In the last few weeks a host of different banks have stepped forward to question both the depth and degree of the current dollar carry trade. Among them have been Goldman Sachs, UBS and Barclays Capital – all claiming the risks of executing speculative dollar-funded carry trades still outweigh the potential returns, meaning the trade isn’t half as popular as the market is making out, nor is it contributing to any such thing as a global asset bubble.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

UK GDP revised…

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 12:43 AM PST

Still, there is some good news in today’s release. The inventory run-down may have ended and should make a positive contribution in the fourth quarter.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-U.K.;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

More bid rumours in the UK utility sector

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 12:56 AM PST

Rumours of predatory interest in the UK utility sector has been swirling for a few weeks now with several names mentioned including United Utilities and Severn Trent. However, the speculation has now focused on one company: International Power, which owns and operates power plants across Europe, the Persian Gulf, the US, Australia, Pakistan, Thailand and Indonesia.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore S&P Global Water Index ETFbuy PowerShares Global Water Portfolio;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

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