Posts Tagged 'employment'

The Weakest Post-Recession Recovery on Record (in graphs)

 

Charts (from Dave Rosenberg) show that this is the weakest post-recession recovery on record. Anyone starting to question this 70% run up since March ’09?

 

Advertisements

Next European Worry, Deflation?

High debt and falling prices could complicate recovery in Europe.  Plans to revamp PIGS economies could in the face of global competition could intensify the downward price pressure.  As firms make staff and wage cuts, deflation risks may persisit for some time.  In addition, deman has shown signs of weakness across the Eurozone and consumer prices have been weak of late.  Deflationary forces in Europe may be picking up steam.

Chart of the Day – Jobs Edition Feb. 5, 2010

Source: Calculated Risk

Skeptical views of Friday’s jobs report

Those unbelievable US payrollshttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/07/87321/those-unbelievable-us-payrolls/

ING’s Rob Carnell pouring some cold water on the numbers on Monday: “In our view, the only potential fly in the ointment of this labour report is how believable it is. Payrolls has been making very, very slow progress in recent months, and such a dramatic turnaround will raise eyebrows, and may not be taken at face value by many. An improvement in the payrolls series always looked on the cards from last month. But most of the labour market data in the run up to this release had been consistent only with a very small step forward, so we may need to see this backed up again next month before concern about the labour market can really be filed away as ‘last year’s worries’.

Dave Rosenberg 12/07/2009http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1764

So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the economy.

Administration/waste management +87k

Health/education +40k

Government +7k

The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned anywhere in the weekend press.

So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the economy:

Administration/waste management +87k

Health/education +40k

Government +7k

The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned anywhere in the weekend press.

Now See The REAL State Of The US Labor Market – http://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-state-of-the-us-labor-market-2009-12

Nathan A. Martin at Nathan’s Economic Edge has gone through all of the employment data, most of it out of the St. Louis Fed, and it paints a grim picture about how bad the employment situation really is. The scope of the problem — which has now become an obsession in Washington — truly remains enormous.

ETFDesk Daily 11/19/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

Sign up for Daily email and feed at etfdesk.com

Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

 

  • How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market?
  • Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap
  • John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold
  • Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’
  • Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!
  • The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update
  • The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update
  • The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer
  • A yuan-sided argument
  • Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers
  • Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets
  • Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch
  • VIX of the VIX
  • The World’s Largest Shopping Mall
  • BofA Merrill cuts ’10 global semiconductor growth view
  • Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt
  • Roach: China’s Market Will Crumble
  • Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference
  • Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise
  • Brazil sparks wider currency control fears

 

How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market?

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 02:55 AM PST

great chart from The Big Picture blog

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDSbuy UltraShort S&P 500 ProSharessell S&P 500 SPDRsell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:32 AM PST

Central bank hoarding of gold in 1970 ushered in the famous gold bull market. With central banks likely to be net gold purchasers in H2 2009 for the first time since 1988 the same starting gun is ringing out today. The price at which the USD would be fully backed by gold (as it was during the peak of the 70s mania) is $6,300. So there is a case for gold being “cheap.” Moreover, the 70s bull market was facilitated by tight energy markets, overly accommodative central banks and nerv

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:35 AM PST

John Paulson, who scored about $20 billion of profits for his hedge fund between 2007 and early 2009 wagering against the housing market and financial companies, is launching a fund dedicated to buying up shares of gold miners and other bullion-related investments, according to three investors.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETFbuy streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 06:35 AM PST

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell S&P 500 SPDRsell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stocksell iShares MSCI-Emerging Marketssell iShares MSCI-EAFEbuy UBS E Tracs CMCI Food Trbuy iPath Dow Jones AIG Sugar Total Return Sub Indexbuy iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury FundbuyPIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:12 AM PST

Classic title

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:25 AM PST

The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Asia Pacific Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:26 AM PST

The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Greater China Fund, Inc.;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:31 AM PST

The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Taiwan Greater China Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

A yuan-sided argument

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:59 AM PST

China allowed the yuan to rise by 21% against the dollar in the three years to July 2008, but since then it has more or less kept the rate fixed. As a result, the yuan’s trade-weighted value has been dragged down this year by the sickly dollar, while many other currencies have soared. Since March the Brazilian real and the South Korean won have gained 42% and 36% respectively against the yuan, seriously eroding those countries’ competitiveness.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion


Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 09:43 AM PST

Some retailers are finding ways to profit even in the face of declining sales. On Tuesday, luxury retailer Saks Inc. reported a surprise profit and Target Corp. notched its first rise in year-over-year net income in eight quarters. But both companies reported declines in sales at stores open for a year, and predicted more of the same in the current quarter, which includes Christmas.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRSsell SPDR S&P Retail ETFsell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 01:14 PM PST

With the Fed in a holding pattern, markets have looked to economic data for their biggest moves in the last six months and that trend is likely to continue, Goldman Sachs economists said. “With the unemployment rate high, we expect the markets to continue to focus on employment data for indications of labor market improvement,” Goldman economists wrote in a research note.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR-Financialsell S&P 500 SPDRsell iShares Russell 2000buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:17 PM PST

Investors are piling into any commodity they can get their hands on as the dollar crumbles and real assets spike.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore/Clear Global Timber Index ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

VIX of the VIX

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:32 PM PST

The volatility of the CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) in recent days is especially noteworthy as the measure of implied volatility in the S & P 500 Index (SPX) is once again bouncing near year-to-date lows.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The World’s Largest Shopping Mall

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:37 PM PST

A cautionary tale of capitalist hubris. An amazing video from PBS.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25sell SPDR S&P China ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

BofA Merrill cuts ’10 global semiconductor growth view

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:50 PM PST

BofA Merrill Lynch lowered its 2010 growth forecast for global semiconductor industry and downgraded ten chipmakers, including Intel Corp (INTC.O), turning more cautious on the group on expectations of a modest overshoot in global supply chain inventories.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETFsell iShares Goldman Sachs Semiconductor Index;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:15 AM PST

San Francisco-based Wells Fargo agreed to buy back all auction rate securities it sold through its brokerage unit before Feb. 13, 2008, the association said in a statement. The bank also will pay a $1.9 million fine and reimburse investors who sold their holdings at a discount after the market collapsed.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Roach: China’s Market Will Crumble

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:42 AM PST

Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach still believes in the long-term China story, but he warns investors to wait for a much-needed market correction first.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25sell SPDR S&P China ETFsell Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap Index ETFbuy UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:53 AM PST

Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:00 AM PST

That’s why I recommend you spread your risk and go with a well-diversified, closed-end fund that invests in hundreds of Senior Secured Floating Rate bonds at once. Such an approach ensures the impact of any bankruptcy is minimal. It also provides daily liquidity.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy First Trust/Four Corners Senior Floating Rate Income II;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Brazil sparks wider currency control fears

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:03 AM PST

Brazil moved overnight to close a loophole that had allowed investors to avoid a 2 per cent tax on foreign investment in equities and bonds announced last month.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

 

 

 

 

ETFDesk Daily 11/16/2009

Sign up for Daily email and feed at www.etfdesk.com

  • China accuses US of fuelling ‘huge carry trade’
  • What Do Bond Traders Think They Know
  • The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses
  • Governments tug hard on growth levers
  • October Retail Sales Beat Expectations, But All Growth Was Just Autos

 

China accuses US of fuelling ‘huge carry trade’

Posted: 15 Nov 2009 04:28 AM PST

The US Federal Reserve is fuelling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned on Sunday just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

What Do Bond Traders Think They Know

Posted: 15 Nov 2009 09:09 AM PST

It’d be interesting to know what the people buying these bonds think is going to happen. Not inflation, based on these yields.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fundsell streetTRACKS Gold Trustbuy iShares Lehman 10-20 Year Treasury Bond Fundsell iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fundsell PIMCO Broad U.S. TIPS Index Fundsell PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses

Posted: 15 Nov 2009 12:22 PM PST

Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRSsell SPDR S&P Retail ETFsell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fundbuy Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fundbuy Aberdeen Australia Equity Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Governments tug hard on growth levers

Posted: 15 Nov 2009 11:59 PM PST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – If the global recession is over, consumers must have missed the memo.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

October Retail Sales Beat Expectations, But All Growth Was Just Autos

Posted: 16 Nov 2009 12:13 AM PST

Advance October retail sales grew faster than expected, at 1.4% month over month, but all the growth disappears if you strip away auto related sales.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRSsell SPDR S&P Retail ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Wednesday, 10/7 Consumer News and Economic Recap

More links on the Consumer and the Economic Recovery

Can’t Find A Job Because You Lost A Job? http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1225
Some of the scariest words I’ve read all day appeared in Above the Law. The blog writes that law firms looking to hire won’t give laid-off associates a chance:

Can China Lead a Recovery? http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1228 BEIJING — Chen Zizheng wheeled his shopping cart down one of the aisles at the Carrefour store near his house and paused in front of the bottles of Remy Martin, Johnnie Walker and Hennessy, each selling for an amount about equal to the annual salary he earned when he was a young government employee.

Fed Frets About Commercial Real Estate http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1237 Banks in the U.S. “are slow” to take losses on their commercial real-estate loans being battered by slumping property values and rental payments, according to a Federal Reserve presentation to banking regulators last month.

Consumer Credit Declines Sharply in August http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1242 U.S. consumers reduced their debt for the seventh straight month in August, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt fell $11.98 billion, or at a 5.8% annual rate …

EMPLOYMENT WOES TO KEEP A LID ON HOUSING RECOVERY http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1243 Despite the robust recovery in many asset prices due to Ben “get to da chopper” Bernanke’s liquidity injections, housing prices remain near their lows.

Americans Slow to Cut Spending on Kids http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1244 During the worst recession in decades consumers refused to cut back on one thing: their kids.


Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 39 other followers

ETFDesk.com

ETFDesk Spotlight

October 2018
M T W T F S S
« May    
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031  
Advertisements