Posts Tagged 'china'

China’s Economy: Chart of the Day

source

Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/30/2010

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The equity market rally is nearing its end

That’s the view of Morgan Stanley’s Teun Draaisma, who reckons the much feared tightening is about to begin in earnest.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA)

sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)

sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM);

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Must Be A Bull Market: The Dumbest Job Ever, Day Trading, Is Cool Again

Apparently, day trading is back. The New York Times says so. So it must be.

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Actively Managed Mutual Funds Are Obsolete

With index funds and ETFs offering diversification at lower cost, actively managed funds have lost their original purpose.

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Why Fund Managers’ Hot Performance Isn’t So Hot

Where have all the geniuses been hiding, and why have they suddenly been popping up everywhere?
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Euro Trashed

THE European Monetary Union, the basis of the euro, began with a grand illusion. On one side were countries — Austria, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands — whose currencies had persistently appreciated, both within Europe and worldwide; the countries on the other side — Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain — had persistently depreciating currencies. Yet the union was devised as a one-size-fits-all structure. As a result, some countries had to use creative accountin

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-Germany (EWG);

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Strong Earnings May Already Be Baked In

For investors, the thrill of earnings season may be over before it’s even begun. The first quarter ends on Wednesday, and earnings season gets into full swing with aluminum giant Alcoa’s results due out on April 12.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA)

sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)

sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ)

sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM);

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China becomes world’s new diabetes capital

China now has more people with diabetes than any other country, a new report shows, making it clear that the nation’s soaring economic growth is taking a toll on public health.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Biotech HOLDRS (BBH);

buy iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund (IHI);

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Be Careful What You Wish For: 4 Reasons Yuan Revaluation Could Backfire

William Pesek of Bloomberg has an intriguing article on the revaluation of the Chinese Yuan.  While many government officials, economists, etc are clamoring for the Chinese to lift the peg keeping its currency in a tight range with the dollar.

Pesek lists 4 reasons why such a move may backfire:

1) Inflation: According to Pesek, a stronger Yuan could devestate the “Walmart Economy.”  Evidenced by a large trade surplus with China, the US consumer buys a lot of cheap products from China.  A sudden increase in prices would be a “shock to the bargain.”  U.S. inflation data, which has been muted in recent months could see a sudden surge.

2) Market Turmoil: Tensions between the US and China have been increasing.  There are growing calls with in the US to label China as a “currency manipulator.”  As tensions mount, markets around the world will be volitile which each press statement and every remark by government officials as the world’s largest economic powers square off.

3) A Chinese Slowdown:  The Chinese economy has been an engine of growth for the economic recovery.  Pesek notes that the economic consequences of say a 10% revaluation of the Yuan vs. the dollar is unknown.  The Chinese Government’s legitamicy is largely premised on rapid growth.  Underestimating China’s fragilities could be a major problem; less GDP growth means less toleratnce for government policies, which could lead to greater unrest.  Can a worldwide economic recovery continue with a slower growing China?

4) Increasing China’s sphere of influence: Pesek mentions China has been pumping billions of dollars into emerging markets in Asia, Latin America, and Africa, often at the expense of US strategic interests.  Each increase in the Yuan grows its worldwide influence.

China’s GDP: Long Term Mean Reversion

Cool chart from NYtimes’s Economix.  You can play with more of the features on the NYTimes post itself.

Interesting to note here that the US’s share of World GDP has only been higher than China’s peak in the early-mid 1800’s during the short peak following World War II.

Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/26/2010

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Is China blowing bubbles? – ft/alphaville

Yes, says Citigroup’s Willem Buiter, who thinks the Chinese authorities will fail in their efforts to prevent a classic boom, bubble and bust asset sequence.
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio (PGJ)

sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI)sellSPDR S&P China ETF (GXC)buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund (CYB);

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Interesting Market Thoughts from Dave Rosenberg

Stronger U.S. dollar. Rising bond yields. Lower commodity prices. Slower growth. And the stock market is flirting at post-crisis highs. Bond yields are rising temporarily and this will very likely prove to be a good buying opportunity;

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF)

buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP)

sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)

sell iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund (TIP)

sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)

buy UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares (TBT)

buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ);

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Gabelli Sues Western

This Complaint seeks declaratory and injunctive relief arising from Defendants’ illegal acquisition of GGMT’s voting stock in clear violation of the antipyramiding provision, 15 U.S.C. § 80a-12(d)(1)(A)(i), and Section 48(a), 15 U.S.C. § 80a-48(a), of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the “Investment Company Act”). Defendants are now threatening to use that wrongfully-acquired voting power in a proxy contest for the election of directors of GGMT at the annual meeting currently e
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Gabelli Global Multimedia Trust (GGT);

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The dollar’s danger A debt-driven collapse?

If no one else will bid at the desired rates, the Federal Reserve is likely to step in as the “lender of last resort” — buying hundreds of billions of dollars of US government debt. But that is effectively printing money to pay our bills — the classic alarm signal for a coming explosion in inflation.
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT);

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Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/25/2010

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Man San International (B.V.I) Limited Completes Merger of…

Man San International (B.V.I) Limited Completes Merger of…
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Top ten reasons you know China has a financial bubble on its hands

Chancellor includes this blind faith in the 10 signposts of manias and financial crises (very reminiscent of Kindelberger, by the way).

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio (PGJ)

sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI)

sellSPDR S&P China ETF (GXC)

sell Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap Index ETF (HAO)

sell Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF (TAO);

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Oil reserves ‘exaggerated by one third’

The world’s oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, the Government’s former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.
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Social Security to See Payout Exceed Pay-In This Year

The bursting of the real estate bubble and the ensuing recession have hurt jobs, home prices and now Social Security. This year, the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes, an important threshold it was not expected to cross until at least 2016, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)

buy PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB)

buyPowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (DBV);

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Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/23/2010

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Greek Crisis May Provoke Fed-ECB Split as Euro Slides

March 23 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s campaign for governments to learn the lessons of the Greek fiscal crisis may provoke a transatlantic policy split that forces the euro back toward its lows of 2006.

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sell Rydex Euro Currency Trust (FXE)

buy ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO);

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Appetite returning for frontier markets

Investors in frontier markets took flight in the financial crisis as they headed away from risky assets, seeking safer havens. But interest is reviving in these small, exotic and often illiquid markets as risk appetite picks up.

buy PowerShares MENA Frontier Countries Portfolio (PMNA);

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Obama Pays More Than Buffett as U.S. Risks AAA Rating

The bond market is saying that it’s safer to lend to Warren Buffett than Barack Obama.

sell iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)

buy iShares GS $ InvesTop Corporate Bond Fund (LQD);

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China in Midst of ‘Greatest Bubble in History,’ Rickards Says

China is in the midst of “the greatest bubble in history,” said James Rickards, former general counsel of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP.

sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI);

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