Posts Tagged 'housing'

Housing: Metro Areas Boom & Bust

Metro Area Home Price Appreciation 2000-2008

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Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/31/2010

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4 Reasons to Consider Utility ETFs

There are a gazillion ways to play the energy sector with exchange traded funds, but you’re not just limited to oil, natural gas or solar power. Utilities might be an off-the-beaten path way to invest in the nation’s changing energy picture.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Rydex S&P Equal Weight Utilities ETF (RYU)

buy Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU)

buy iShares S&P Global Utilities Sector Index Fund (JXI)

buy iShares DJ US Utilities (IDU);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Are Home Prices Cheap?

Analysts at Deutsche Bank attempt to answer the question “Rent of Buy?” in a new research piece out today. While falling home prices and declining interest rates have narrowed the rent-buy gap, home affordability is not high by historical standards.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares DJ US Real Estate (IYR);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Long-Term Rates Finally on Verge of Breaking Out

ALTHOUGH THE FED HAS reaffirmed its low short-term interest rate policy, it cannot control long-term interest rates. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has risen from a low of 3.23% at Thanksgiving of last year to its current level 3.87%.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)

sell iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF)

sell iShares Lehman 10-20 Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLH)

buy UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury ProShares (PST)

buy UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares (TBT)

sell PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

M&A surges in Asia while US and Europe suffer

Mergers and acquisitions boomed in Asia in the first quarter in sharp contrast to a slump in deal volume in Europe and the US, underlining a global shift in activity in the wake of the credit crisis.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Gabelli Global Deal Fund (GDL)

buy IQ ARB Merger Arbitrage ETF (MNA);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Oil in Big Macs: Chart of the Day

The idea for this comparison of Oil to Big Macs, is that a Big Mac is representative of a basket of agricultural goods and thus compares the relative advantage of trading food for oil. Whats interesting about this is that theoretically, it should be a somewhat inflation-adjusted measure of oil prices. As of now it appears agricultural goods is undervalued relative to Oil.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell United States Oil Fund LP (USO)

buy ELEMENTS – Rogers International Commodity Index Agriculture Total Return (RJA);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Weakest Post-Recession Recovery on Record (in graphs)

 

Charts (from Dave Rosenberg) show that this is the weakest post-recession recovery on record. Anyone starting to question this 70% run up since March ’09?

 

New Home Sales Fall to Record Low in February

New Home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted rate of 308,000 for Febraury 2010, 2.2% below the revised Janaury rate of 315,000 and 13% below the Feb 09 rate of 354,000.

Months of supply is rising to 9.2 months of supply in Feb 2010.

One has to wonder how bad these numbers can get post Tax credits in 2nd half 2010?

Existing Home Sales Decline in February

Existing-home, which are finalized transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 0.6 percent nationally to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.02 million units in February from 5.05 million in January, but are 7.0 percent higher than the 4.69 million-unit pace in February 2009.

Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 9.5 percent to 3.59 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.8-month supply in January. Raw unsold inventory is 5.5 percent below a year ago.

more at Calculated Risk

Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/4/2010

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Britain Grapples With Debt of Greek Proportions

LONDON — As Greece’s debt troubles batter the euro, Britain has done its utmost to stay above the fray.

sell Rydex British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Recipe for Rebound in Apartment REITS?

Multi-family housing could be an interesting counterintuitive idea. Yes, vacancy rates are still near alltime records and unemployment is still very high. And, yes we still believe the economy is on less than stable footing. However, this could be an interesting play.

buy iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (ICF)

buy iShares FTSE NAREIT Residential Index Fund (REZ);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Corporate Deal Makers Head to Emerging Markets

Swollen with cash from fast-growing economies, many emerging-market companies are on the prowl for acquisitions. At the same time, their counterparts in the West — desperate for growth and often seeing few prospects at home — are opening their wallets to move into developing countries, trying to get at resources, new customers or both.

buy iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets (EEM);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Well drilled

Offshore oil platforms operate at ever-greater depths

buy PowerShares Dynamic Oil & Gas Services Portfolio (PXJ);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Attack of the really quite likeable tomatoes

The success of genetically modified crops provides opportunities to win over their critics

buy Market Vectors–Agribusiness ETF (MOO);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Obama sends ‘Volcker rule’ to Congress

The Obama administration told members of Congress to introduce a new 10 per cent limit on an individual bank’s share of overall liabilities on Wednesday as it sent a fleshed-out “Volcker rule” to Capitol Hill.

sell SPDR-Financial (XLF)

sell iShares Dow Jones U.S. Broker-Dealers Index Fund (IAI);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Recipe for Rebound in Apartment REITS?

Source: WSJ

Multi-family housing could be an interesting counterintuitive idea.  Yes, vacancy rates are still near alltime records and unemployment is still very high.  And, yes we still believe the economy is on less than stable footing.  However, this could be an interesting play.  The Great Recession forced builders to cut supply and we may just be seeing the bottom of rent deflation and landlord concessions.  Construction costs have also fallen over the past year.  More importantly, this has a more long-term demographic aspect to it.  The key rental cohort (age 20-34) is going to expand by 5 million over the next decade.   You have to think the housing debacle will certainly have an affect on the buying mentality of the younger generation.  Its not a stretch of the imagination to think the Recession will push housing purchases to later dates than the previous era (post-Tax credits, of course).

ETFs worthy of a look:

REZ  iShares FTSE NAREIT Residential Index Fund

ICF  iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors


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