Posts Tagged 'ETF'

Oil in Big Macs: Chart of the Day

Source: Gregor.us

The idea for this comparison of Oil to Big Macs, is that a Big Mac is representative of a basket of agricultural goods and thus compares the relative advantage of trading food for oil.  Whats interesting about this is that theoretically, it should be a somewhat inflation-adjusted measure of oil prices.  As of now it appears agricultural goods is undervalued relative to Oil. 

Interesting to see how the plays out in a pairs trade?

Short Oil (USO  United States Oil Fund LP)

Long Agriculture (RJA  ELEMENTS – Rogers International Commodity Index Agriculture Total Return)

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Hedge Fund Industry Returns, Not as Good as They Appear

An interesting study by a couple of Seton Hall University economists shows a “hidden” gap in historical hedge fund returns.  The authors found a suveriorship bias in hedge fund returns, amplified by failing funds that stop reporting their performance.  An interesting study indeed…

Are Home Prices Cheap?

Analysts at Deutsche Bank attempt to answer the question “Rent of Buy?” in a new research piece out today.  While falling home prices and declining interest rates have narrowed the rent-buy gap, home affordability is not high by historical standards.

According to Deutsche Bank, the rent-buy gap has narrowed by 5.2% in Q4 2009 to 88.5% the second highest level since Q1 2003.

national rent-buy gap (rent as % of after-tax mortgage payments, ATMP)

 

source: Deutsche Bank “Rent or Buy?”

While home affordability has improved, rents remain more affodable compared to income.  The cost to rent in Q3 2009 was 9.4% of household income, while the cost to own is 11.3% of household income. Notice the graph below, ATMP as % of household income has fallen signficantly from its peak in Q2 2006 of 17.2% but not below historical trend levels.

source: Deutsche Bank “Rent or Buy?”

 

However, other affordability metrics have shown housing affordability at alltime hights. For example, the most commonly cited metric – the National Association fo Realtors (NAR) index has set highs since December 2009.  However, the Deutsche Bank analysts question this as an appropriate measure. NAR looks at housing costs in isolation.  This grossly underrepresents the dwelling options of any individual.  As we all know, renting is a viable option, so any index that does not take into account the cost of renting a home vs. owning a home is fundamentally flawed.

source: Deutsche Bank “Rent or Buy?”

Using a Price-to-rent ratio, akin to a price-earning ratio, Deutsche Bank analysts argue that home prices could decline another 11%.  During the early 1990s, the average price-to-rent ration was 16.2.  During the mid 2000’s the ratio reached a peak of 24.7 in Q2 2007 and has since fallend to 18.2 in Q4 2009.  However this 18.2 reading is still elevated compated to that of the 1990s. 

During  the  1990’s  a  booming economy did little to push price-rent ratios out of equilibrium as both home prices and rents
moved in the same general direction. In our view, rents are likely to decline, thus prices may
need to fall even further than the 11% that the price-to-rent ratio implies.

source: Deutsche Bank “Rent or Buy?”

source: Deutsche Bank “Rent or Buy?”

With mortgage rates starting to creap up as the FED is signaling the end of mortgage buying, it doesn’t seem like a stretch to think that as rates go up, home prices will fall in order to keep some sort of equilibrium in affordability. 

With the tax credits expiring towards the middle half of this year, continued increase in forclosures, headwinds still persist for the housing market.  Now might be a good time to start building shorts in IYR in the face of exhubirant optimism with the recent Case-Shiller index.

source: www.etfdesk.com

Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/30/2010

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The equity market rally is nearing its end

That’s the view of Morgan Stanley’s Teun Draaisma, who reckons the much feared tightening is about to begin in earnest.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA)

sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)

sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Must Be A Bull Market: The Dumbest Job Ever, Day Trading, Is Cool Again

Apparently, day trading is back. The New York Times says so. So it must be.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Actively Managed Mutual Funds Are Obsolete

With index funds and ETFs offering diversification at lower cost, actively managed funds have lost their original purpose.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Why Fund Managers’ Hot Performance Isn’t So Hot

Where have all the geniuses been hiding, and why have they suddenly been popping up everywhere?
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Euro Trashed

THE European Monetary Union, the basis of the euro, began with a grand illusion. On one side were countries — Austria, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands — whose currencies had persistently appreciated, both within Europe and worldwide; the countries on the other side — Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain — had persistently depreciating currencies. Yet the union was devised as a one-size-fits-all structure. As a result, some countries had to use creative accountin

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-Germany (EWG);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Strong Earnings May Already Be Baked In

For investors, the thrill of earnings season may be over before it’s even begun. The first quarter ends on Wednesday, and earnings season gets into full swing with aluminum giant Alcoa’s results due out on April 12.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA)

sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)

sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ)

sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

China becomes world’s new diabetes capital

China now has more people with diabetes than any other country, a new report shows, making it clear that the nation’s soaring economic growth is taking a toll on public health.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Biotech HOLDRS (BBH);

buy iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund (IHI);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/29/2010

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Are Water Utilities Ready to Rise With the Economic Tide?

Since March 9th of last year, the Standard & Poor’s Composite 1500 index, a broad-based, capitalization-weighted benchmark of 1,500 U.S. companies, has rallied 75%. As it happens, all but one industry group in the index, which is comprised of the S&P 500, the S&P 400 (mid cap), and the S&P 600 (small cap), has seen a double-digit percentage rally over the span

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares Water Resource Portfolio (PHO)

buy Claymore S&P Global Water Index ETF (CGW)

buy First Trust ISE Water Index Fund (FIW)

buy PowerShares Global Water Portfolio (PIO);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

A euro exit is the only way out for Greece

Greece faces the threat of state bankruptcy. No longer is there any illusion that membership of Europe’s economic and monetary union provides protection from harsh realities. Since it entered the euro area in 2001, Greece has sacrificed competitiveness and amassed enormous trade deficits. Theoretically, to make up the economic ground lost in less than a decade, the Greeks would need to devalue by 40 per cent. But in a monetary union, that is impossible.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-Germany (EWG)

buy Rydex Euro Currency Trust (FXE);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Brazil yields up on interest rate hike bets

SAO PAULO, March 25 (Reuters) – Yields on Brazilian interest rate future contracts for shorter maturities jumped on Thursday over expectations the central bank would hike borrowing costs in April for the first time in two years.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund (BZF);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Greenspan Calls Treasury Yields ‘Canary in the Mine’

March 26 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recent rise in Treasury yields represents a “canary in the mine” that may signal further gains in interest rates.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)

sell iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF)

buy UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury ProShares (PST)

buy UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares (TBT)

buy Direxion Daily 30-Yr Treasury Bear 3x Shares (TMV)

sell PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Junk Bonds in ‘Goldilocks’ Market Reach Record: Credit Markets

March 29 (Bloomberg) — Junk bond sales reached a record this month as rising profits and record low Federal Reserve interest rates foster lending and investment to the lowest-rated borrowers.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG)

buy SPDR Lehman High Yield Bond ETF (JNK);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Stocks Soar, but Many Analysts Ask Why

The unemployment rate remains locked in a range that recalls the economic doldrums of the early 1980s. Housing is stuck in a ditch, with foreclosures rising. And consumers are still reluctant to part with the little cash they do have.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Greece May Need More Support Than You Think

Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/26/2010

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Is China blowing bubbles? – ft/alphaville

Yes, says Citigroup’s Willem Buiter, who thinks the Chinese authorities will fail in their efforts to prevent a classic boom, bubble and bust asset sequence.
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio (PGJ)

sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI)sellSPDR S&P China ETF (GXC)buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund (CYB);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Interesting Market Thoughts from Dave Rosenberg

Stronger U.S. dollar. Rising bond yields. Lower commodity prices. Slower growth. And the stock market is flirting at post-crisis highs. Bond yields are rising temporarily and this will very likely prove to be a good buying opportunity;

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF)

buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP)

sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)

sell iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund (TIP)

sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)

buy UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares (TBT)

buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Gabelli Sues Western

This Complaint seeks declaratory and injunctive relief arising from Defendants’ illegal acquisition of GGMT’s voting stock in clear violation of the antipyramiding provision, 15 U.S.C. § 80a-12(d)(1)(A)(i), and Section 48(a), 15 U.S.C. § 80a-48(a), of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the “Investment Company Act”). Defendants are now threatening to use that wrongfully-acquired voting power in a proxy contest for the election of directors of GGMT at the annual meeting currently e
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Gabelli Global Multimedia Trust (GGT);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The dollar’s danger A debt-driven collapse?

If no one else will bid at the desired rates, the Federal Reserve is likely to step in as the “lender of last resort” — buying hundreds of billions of dollars of US government debt. But that is effectively printing money to pay our bills — the classic alarm signal for a coming explosion in inflation.
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion


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