Sign up for Daily email and feed at etfdesk.com
Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…
- 5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF
- Dave Rosenberg 11/30/2009 KEEP AN EYE ON THE CREDIT MARKETS AGAIN
- Tail Risk in Sovereign CDS
- How overbuilt is China?
- Why Black Friday Data Points To A Grim Holiday Season
- Hussman: 80% Chance Of A Market Crash Over The Next Year
- Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010
- Morgan Stanley: Here Comes A Brutal 2010
- GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009
|5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF
Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:15 AM PST
Strategists at Credit Suisse are currently expecting a near-term equity sell-off, but are not yet concerned about the downturn evolving into a larger bear market decline. Why have they turned a bit more cautious? A series of psychological, fundamental and technical events:
|Dave Rosenberg 11/30/2009 KEEP AN EYE ON THE CREDIT MARKETS AGAIN
Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:42 AM PST
Buying call options on volatility has rarely looked as attractive as is the case today if this Dubai situation turns into something even fractionally similar to what happened in places like Thailand, Russia or Argentina. Once the complacency is shaken out of the market, which in our view would be a good thing, it is going to give those who have been skeptical over this “liquidity-induced” rally a chance to take out our rulers and sharpen our pencils.
Posted: 30 Nov 2009 04:32 AM PST
Will the tail wag the dog again? Or, more specifically, will the rise of sovereign credit default swaps drive pricing in government bond markets? The Dubai shock has highlighted disconnects between the two markets. The traditional flight-to-safety bid led U.S. Treasurys and U.K. gilts to rally sharply. But the nature of the shock – a reminder that governments have balance-sheet constraints – pushed up the cost of insuring even high-quality sovereigns against default. That suggests
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (IGOV);
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion
|How overbuilt is China?
Posted: 30 Nov 2009 05:32 AM PST
LATELY, Tyler Cowen has been pushing an Austrian view of economic activity in China, namely, that government policies are generating far too much investment in certain sectors of the Chinese economy, setting the stage for an eventual collapse as resources are re-allocated back to productive uses. Over the weekend, Mr Cowen developed the argument in a New York Times piece:
Posted: 30 Nov 2009 07:21 AM PST
If you were counting on what Glenn Reynolds calls “the retail support brigade” to come riding over the hills, you might want to rethink. After last year turned in one of the worst holiday shopping seasons in decades, people were hoping that things might perk up this year, but Black Friday’s results don’t look too good for retailers. Sales were up a paltry 0.5% from last year, and that only because a lot more people came out bargain-hunting.
Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:13 PM PST
Fund manager John Hussman says he under-estimated how little investors have learned in the market crashes of recent years and thus has missed much of the market upside this year
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA); buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT); buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (SDS); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM); buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ);