Posts Tagged 'nonfarm payrolls'

The Weakest Post-Recession Recovery on Record (in graphs)

 

Charts (from Dave Rosenberg) show that this is the weakest post-recession recovery on record. Anyone starting to question this 70% run up since March ’09?

 

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Chart of the Day – Jobs Edition Feb. 5, 2010

Source: Calculated Risk

The Employment Picture in Charts

 

Source: BLS

Source: BLS

Source : BLS

Job Growth Erodes as Housing Bust Pushes Mobility to Record Low

Tomorrow’s BLS report might have some encouraging numbers, but this might be a just a short term uptick:

Job Growth Erodes as Housing Bust Pushes Mobility to Record Low (Bloomberg)

The ability to relocate for employment, which helped the U.S. recover quickly after previous deep recessions, is the latest victim of the housing bust. About 12.5 percent of Americans moved in the year ended March 2009, the second-lowest ever, estimates Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, after a 60-year record low of 11.9 percent the previous year.

The stagnant workforce may raise the long-term trend rate for unemploymentby 1 percentage point and lower economic growth 0.3 percent a year through 2012, said Michael Feroli, an economist in New York for JPMorgan Chase & Co. It has already contributed to keeping the jobless rate as much as 1.5 percentage points higher than would have been suggested by the depth of the recession, Peter Orszag, director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, estimated in July.



Skeptical views of Friday’s jobs report

Those unbelievable US payrollshttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/07/87321/those-unbelievable-us-payrolls/

ING’s Rob Carnell pouring some cold water on the numbers on Monday: “In our view, the only potential fly in the ointment of this labour report is how believable it is. Payrolls has been making very, very slow progress in recent months, and such a dramatic turnaround will raise eyebrows, and may not be taken at face value by many. An improvement in the payrolls series always looked on the cards from last month. But most of the labour market data in the run up to this release had been consistent only with a very small step forward, so we may need to see this backed up again next month before concern about the labour market can really be filed away as ‘last year’s worries’.

Dave Rosenberg 12/07/2009http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1764

So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the economy.

Administration/waste management +87k

Health/education +40k

Government +7k

The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned anywhere in the weekend press.

So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the economy:

Administration/waste management +87k

Health/education +40k

Government +7k

The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned anywhere in the weekend press.

Now See The REAL State Of The US Labor Market – http://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-state-of-the-us-labor-market-2009-12

Nathan A. Martin at Nathan’s Economic Edge has gone through all of the employment data, most of it out of the St. Louis Fed, and it paints a grim picture about how bad the employment situation really is. The scope of the problem — which has now become an obsession in Washington — truly remains enormous.

ETFDesk Daily 12/04/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

Sign up for Daily email and feed at etfdesk.com

Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

  • Investment guru urges US dollar exodus : Jim Rodgers – Long Commodities
  • MXF November Monthly Update
  • Goldman On Gold: $1,450/Oz
  • Krugman : Double dip warning
  • Canada Added 79,100 Jobs, Five Times Expectations
  • Gold Falls Below $1,200 After Payrolls
  • China eyes industrial bases in Africa
Investment guru urges US dollar exodus : Jim Rodgers – Long Commodities

Posted: 03 Dec 2009 03:46 AM PST

Billionaire US investor Jim Rogers is advising investors to desert the greenback and put their money into commodities. The influential former partner of financier George Soros says the US dollar is a flawed currency that has no future.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)buyPowerShares DB Oil Fund (DBO)buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN)buy iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG)buy ELEMENTS MLCX Grains Index Total Return (GRU)buy GS Connect S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy Index ETN (GSC)buy iPath Dow Jones-AIG Industrial Metals Total Return Sub-Inde ETN (JJM);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

MXF November Monthly Update

Posted: 03 Dec 2009 04:55 AM PST

MXF November Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Mexico Fund (MXF);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman On Gold: $1,450/Oz

Posted: 03 Dec 2009 05:27 AM PST

And forthwith, the oracle speaks. The much awaited 2010 Commodity Outlook is out. Here is the 2010 summary breakdown:

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)buystreetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD)buy PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)buy Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Krugman : Double dip warning

Posted: 03 Dec 2009 12:14 PM PST

I’ve never been fully committed to the notion that we’re going to have a “double dip” — that the economy will slide back into recession. But it has been clear for a while that it’s a serious possibility, for two reasons.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (SDS);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Canada Added 79,100 Jobs, Five Times Expectations

Posted: 03 Dec 2009 11:17 PM PST

Canadian employers added more than five times as many jobs as expected in November, led by education, manufacturing and finance, a sign of an accelerating economic recovery.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-Canada (EWC)buy Rydex Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Gold Falls Below $1,200 After Payrolls

Posted: 03 Dec 2009 11:43 PM PST

After initially paring losses on stronger-than-expected payrolls data, gold futures have sunk back below a key $1,200 support level as the dollar strengthens.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

China eyes industrial bases in Africa

Posted: 04 Dec 2009 12:59 AM PST

Robert Zoellick, the president of the World Bank, said Beijing had shown “strong interest” in proposals to set up manufacturing bases to help African countries achieve high growth paths similar to Asian ones.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-South Africa (EZA)buy Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF (AFK);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ft.com/alphaville : On outperforming the US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Found this post interesting: should really take Friday’s payroll with a grain of salt.

TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Lost 255,000, Jobs in November Wages and Salaries Falling, Not Flat as Reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sausalito, CA — December 2, 2009 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November, the fifteenth consecutive month job losses exceeded 250,000. In the past 12 months, job losses totaled 5.8 million, the second-highest 12-month total since 1970.   “The unemployment rate could easily hit 11% by early next year,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. “Employers are still slashing hundreds of thousands of jobs per month even though the government is spending tens of billions of dollars per month on stimulus programs.”  

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/02/86766/on-outperforming-the-us-bureau-of-economic-analysis/

full release at http://www.trimtabs.com/global/news_releases.htm


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