Charts (from Dave Rosenberg) show that this is the weakest post-recession recovery on record. Anyone starting to question this 70% run up since March ’09?
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Posts Tagged 'nonfarm payrolls'
The Weakest Post-Recession Recovery on Record (in graphs)
Published March 29, 2010 Uncategorized 2 CommentsTags: Dave Rosenberg, economy, employment, housing, industrial production, Jobs, labor market, market, nonfarm payrolls, real estate housing starts, real GDP, Recession, retail sales, stocks, unemployment
Chart of the Day – Jobs Edition Feb. 5, 2010
Published February 5, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a CommentTags: economy, employment, Jobs, nonfarm payrolls, past recessions, payrolls, recessions, unemployment
Source: Calculated Risk
The Employment Picture in Charts
Published January 8, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a CommentTags: BLS, double dip, economy, employment situation, gdp, Jobs, nonfarm payrolls, payrolls, Recession, Recovery, Stimulus, unemployment
Source: BLS
Source: BLS
Source : BLS
Job Growth Erodes as Housing Bust Pushes Mobility to Record Low
Published January 7, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a CommentTags: BLS. payroll, employment picture, Jobs, labor market, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment
Tomorrow’s BLS report might have some encouraging numbers, but this might be a just a short term uptick:
Job Growth Erodes as Housing Bust Pushes Mobility to Record Low (Bloomberg)
The ability to relocate for employment, which helped the U.S. recover quickly after previous deep recessions, is the latest victim of the housing bust. About 12.5 percent of Americans moved in the year ended March 2009, the second-lowest ever, estimates Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, after a 60-year record low of 11.9 percent the previous year.
The stagnant workforce may raise the long-term trend rate for unemploymentby 1 percentage point and lower economic growth 0.3 percent a year through 2012, said Michael Feroli, an economist in New York for JPMorgan Chase & Co. It has already contributed to keeping the jobless rate as much as 1.5 percentage points higher than would have been suggested by the depth of the recession, Peter Orszag, director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, estimated in July.
Skeptical views of Friday’s jobs report
Published December 7, 2009 Uncategorized Leave a CommentTags: economy, employment, Jobs, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment
Those unbelievable US payrolls – http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/07/87321/those-unbelievable-us-payrolls/
ING’s Rob Carnell pouring some cold water on the numbers on Monday: “In our view, the only potential fly in the ointment of this labour report is how believable it is. Payrolls has been making very, very slow progress in recent months, and such a dramatic turnaround will raise eyebrows, and may not be taken at face value by many. An improvement in the payrolls series always looked on the cards from last month. But most of the labour market data in the run up to this release had been consistent only with a very small step forward, so we may need to see this backed up again next month before concern about the labour market can really be filed away as ‘last year’s worries’.
Dave Rosenberg 12/07/2009 – http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1764
So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the economy.
Administration/waste management +87k
Health/education +40k
Government +7k
The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned anywhere in the weekend press.
So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the economy:
Administration/waste management +87k
Health/education +40k
Government +7k
The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned anywhere in the weekend press.
Now See The REAL State Of The US Labor Market – http://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-state-of-the-us-labor-market-2009-12
Nathan A. Martin at Nathan’s Economic Edge has gone through all of the employment data, most of it out of the St. Louis Fed, and it paints a grim picture about how bad the employment situation really is. The scope of the problem — which has now become an obsession in Washington — truly remains enormous.
ft.com/alphaville : On outperforming the US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Published December 2, 2009 Uncategorized Leave a CommentTags: Jobs, labor market, nonfarm payrolls, payroll, TrimTabs, unemployment
Found this post interesting: should really take Friday’s payroll with a grain of salt.
TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Lost 255,000, Jobs in November Wages and Salaries Falling, Not Flat as Reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis
Sausalito, CA — December 2, 2009 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November, the fifteenth consecutive month job losses exceeded 250,000. In the past 12 months, job losses totaled 5.8 million, the second-highest 12-month total since 1970. “The unemployment rate could easily hit 11% by early next year,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. “Employers are still slashing hundreds of thousands of jobs per month even though the government is spending tens of billions of dollars per month on stimulus programs.”
full release at http://www.trimtabs.com/global/news_releases.htm
