Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves 3/10/2010

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Morgan Stanley’s ROACH: THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF A DOUBLE DIP

Stephen Roach, head of Morgan Stanley Asia, discusses the state of the consumer and the real unemployment rate at 11.5%. He discusses many of the items we highlighted in our headline article this morning. Roach is still very concerned about a double dip recession led by consumers and caused by an end to the government stimulus.

sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA)

buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)

sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)

sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ)

buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Shorting US Treasuries could be a mistake

over the medium term – say the next several quarters, a reasonable investment horizon – there are reasons to expect the Treasury market to hold its own, and perhaps even surprise with lower yields.

buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)

buy iShares Lehman 10-20 Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLH)

buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ)

buy Long-Term Govmt Bond ETF (VGLT)

buy Inter-Term Govmt Bond ETF (VGIT);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Public Pension Funds Are Adding Risk to Raise Returns

Government pension plans cannot beef up their bonds that mature many, many years from now without dashing their business models. They use long-range estimates that presume high investment returns will cover most of the cost of the benefits they must pay. And that, they say, allows them to make smaller contributions along the way.
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

South Africa: back of the net – not

Hosting the 2010 FIFA Soccer World Cup probably will bring tangible but small economic benefits to the SA economy. While stadium and transportation infrastructure construction provided the main boost prior to 2010, we expect World Cup-related tourism inflows to boost this year’s real GDP by up to 0.5%.

sell iShares MSCI-South Africa (EZA);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Emerging-Market Stocks May Retreat 15%, Aberdeen’s Kaloo Says

March 10 (Bloomberg) — Emerging-market stocks will drop as much as 15 percent this year as earnings miss estimates and global growth slows, said Devan Kaloo, who oversees $22 billion at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc.

sell Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)

sell iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets (EEM)

buy Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM)

sell SPDR S&P Emerging Markets ETF (GMM)

buy Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares (EDZ);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Oil Can Top $100 a Barrel Soon Enough

THE FUNDAMENTALS IN THE crude oil market got a boost in recent weeks with renewed hopes of a swift recovery in the global economy (demand increases) and ethnic violence in oil rich Nigeria (supply disruptions). This pushed crude prices above $82 a barrel.

buy PowerShares DB Oil Fund (DBO)

buy United States Oil Fund LP (USO)

buy iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL)

buy United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL)

buy PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN (OLO);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Pound Slide to Help U.K. Outpace Europe, Goldman Says

March 9 (Bloomberg) — The pound’s drop last week to a 10- month low may help the U.K. economy grow faster than the region sharing the euro, which is hobbled by budget deficits and aging populations, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

sell iShares MSCI-France (EWQ)

sell iShares MSCI-Germany (EWG)

sell iShares MSCI-Spain (EWP)

buy iShares MSCI-U.K. (EWU)

sell streetTRACKS Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 Fund (FEZ)

sell Rydex British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB)

sell Rydex Euro Currency Trust (FXE);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Sector Appeal: Funds That Beat Indexes

Active Portfolio Managers Have Outperformed Many Exchange-Traded Funds, Thanks to Surging Small-Cap Stocks
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Build America Pays Off on Wall Street

Brokerage Firms Net $1 Billion-Plus for Selling the New Bonds, but Say It Can Be Hard Work

sell PowerShares Build America Bond Portfolio (BAB);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Eaton Vance Dumps Dirt Bonds as Florida Land Districts Default

Thomas Metzold, Eaton Vance Corp.’s co-head of municipals, sold all his defaulted bonds of Tison’s Landing, an unfinished housing development in Jacksonville, Florida, as the debt fell to a third of face value last year.

sell Market Vectors High Yield Muni (HYD);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Fundamental Flaw of Europe’s Common Currency

The euro is under attack like never before, as the promises on which it was based turn out to be lies. Hedge funds are speculating against Greek debt, while euro-zone politicians work behind the scenes to cobble together rescue packages. But fundamental flaws in the monetary union need to be fixed if Europe’s common currency is to survive. By SPIEGEL staff.

sell Rydex Euro Currency Trust (FXE)

buy ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

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