Skeptical views of Friday’s jobs report

Those unbelievable US payrollshttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/07/87321/those-unbelievable-us-payrolls/

ING’s Rob Carnell pouring some cold water on the numbers on Monday: “In our view, the only potential fly in the ointment of this labour report is how believable it is. Payrolls has been making very, very slow progress in recent months, and such a dramatic turnaround will raise eyebrows, and may not be taken at face value by many. An improvement in the payrolls series always looked on the cards from last month. But most of the labour market data in the run up to this release had been consistent only with a very small step forward, so we may need to see this backed up again next month before concern about the labour market can really be filed away as ‘last year’s worries’.

Dave Rosenberg 12/07/2009http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=1764

So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the economy.

Administration/waste management +87k

Health/education +40k

Government +7k

The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned anywhere in the weekend press.

So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the economy:

Administration/waste management +87k

Health/education +40k

Government +7k

The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned anywhere in the weekend press.

Now See The REAL State Of The US Labor Market – http://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-state-of-the-us-labor-market-2009-12

Nathan A. Martin at Nathan’s Economic Edge has gone through all of the employment data, most of it out of the St. Louis Fed, and it paints a grim picture about how bad the employment situation really is. The scope of the problem — which has now become an obsession in Washington — truly remains enormous.

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