ETFDesk Daily 11/18/2009

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

 

  • Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance
  • Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped
  • Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009
  • Gold – the next bubble?
  • Goldman Sachs: “V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely”
  • TF Oct Monthly Update
  • Altman Group hosted CEF conference
  • Michael Panzner: Commercial Real Estate Is A “Tsunami Unfolding”
  • The Great Wallop : Chimerica
  • Explorers’ Self-Deflating Gas Cushion
  • Hands warns governments on banks
  • Africa: Corruption Perception – Nigeria’s Rating Worsens
  • Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains
  • It’s Quiet…Too Quiet
  • U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts
  • the Geography of the Recession
  • Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction
  • The Case for the Chinese Yuan

 

Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 02:06 AM PST

Great Info from the Council on Foreign Relations

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR S&P China ETF;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:01 AM PST

This data appears to be at odds with the inflationary environment gold, commodities and equities have been giving off. Perhaps more important in this data is the fact that it shows investors are simply moving out of dollars and into real assets – not as a sign of inflation worries loom, but as investors lose faith in the longevity of the United States and the paper we print our money on.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fundsell PowerShares DB Oil FundbuyUltraShort S&P 500 ProSharessell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:42 AM PST

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher suggested yesterday that the Q3 real GDP print will be taken down from 3.5% at an annual rate to 2.5% ? despite massive government stimulus. (Is that all you get for your money?) And the Philadelphia Fed survey of professional forecasters shows that this collection of 41 economists just took down their 2010 Q1 GDP call to 2.3% from 2.5% and for next year?s Q2 to 2.4% from 2.8%.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDSsell SPDR S&P Retail ETFsell S&P 500 SPDR;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Gold – the next bubble?

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:42 AM PST

WHAT are the preconditions for a bubble? Perhaps there are four: easy credit conditions, a significant trend-breaking event, the lack of plausible valuation measures and an appealing story.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Goldman Sachs: “V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely”

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:55 AM PST

Despite the sharp pickup in real GDP growth since the dark days of early 2009, we estimate that real final demand—net of the boost from fiscal policy—is still contracting at an annual rate of around 1% in the second half of 2009. Although we expect a moderate recovery of around 2% by the second half of 2010, such a 3-percentage-point improvement would be insufficient to offset the loss of 4-5 percentage points of stimulus from fiscal policy and the inventory cycle. Hence, real G

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund; sellS&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

TF Oct Monthly Update

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 06:10 AM PST

The Thai Capital Fund October Monthly Update

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Thai Capital Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Altman Group hosted CEF conference

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 06:22 AM PST

Altman Group hosted CEF conference…Here is link for replay if interested

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Michael Panzner: Commercial Real Estate Is A “Tsunami Unfolding”

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 09:18 AM PST

Today, Panzner calls a V-shaped recovery “ridiculous,” says commercial real estate is a bubble sure to burst, and is fearful that there’s far too much speculation on commodities, risky stocks and emerging markets. In short, he says “the world is a riskier place and will continue to stay that way going forward.”

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fundsell PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fundsell PowerShares DB Oil Fundbuy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fundsell S&P 500 SPDRsellstreetTRACKS Gold Trustsell iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

The Great Wallop : Chimerica

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 09:43 AM PST

A FEW years ago we came up with the term “Chimerica” to describe the combination of the Chinese and American economies, which together had become the key driver of the global economy. With a combined 13 percent of the world’s land surface and around a quarter of its population, Chimerica nevertheless accounted for a third of global economic output and two-fifths of worldwide growth from 1998 to 2007.

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Explorers’ Self-Deflating Gas Cushion

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 01:42 PM PST

With producers still collectively pursuing growth, the chances of a rebound in gas prices next year looks more remote than ever. Yet the S&P Supercomposite oil and gas E&P index—weighted 69% to gas production—commands a forward price/earnings multiple of 22 times. Such confidence is the very thing causing the industry to drill its way into trouble.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fundsell United States Natural Gas Fund, LP;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Hands warns governments on banks

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 10:58 PM PST

Guy Hands, head of private equity house Terra Firma, warned on Wednesday that unless governments pushed banks to restructure $7,000bn of leveraged loans that are due to mature by 2014, the US and Europe could face the “Japanese problem” of zero growth.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell ING Prime Rate Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Africa: Corruption Perception – Nigeria’s Rating Worsens

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:08 PM PST

Nigeria dropped nine places to 130th position out of the 180 countries ranked on the global Corruption Perceptions Index Nigera allocation is 17% of AFK

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:11 PM PST

Bing search engine continues to make incremental gains in search share, with new numbers bringing Bing’s share closer to double digits. SWH – 21% MSFT

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Software HOLDRS;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

It’s Quiet…Too Quiet

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:21 PM PST

In that vein, Pat Neal, Jefferies’ stock and derivatives strategist, is telling clients to use the lull in the VIX to hedge stock portfolios. He sees a hidden disconnect between quiescent VIX and its component stocks that could spell trouble for stocks.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:33 PM PST

Almost 70 percent of consumers surveyed said they wanted to see discounts of at least 50 percent before they would buy something for the holidays, according to the survey by America’s Research Group.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

the Geography of the Recession

Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:40 PM PST

very interesting map of unemployment

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:16 AM PST

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — Mark Mobius said stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to rise by 30 to 40 percent within three to four years as higher economic growth and lower government debt spurs corporate earnings.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25buy iShares MSCI-Brazilbuy iShares MSCI-Emerging Marketsbuy SPDR S&P BRIC 40 ETFbuy Market Vectors Russia ETF Trustbuy iPath MSCI India Index ETNbuyiShares MSCI BRIC Index Fundbuy Templeton Emerging Markets Fund, Inc;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

The Case for the Chinese Yuan

Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:38 AM PST

Investors may look back at the liquidity crisis of 2008 as the inflection point that affirmed China as a global economic superpower. During this time, the majority of emerging market currencies suffered as investors fled higher-risk currencies. However, the Chinese yuan largely tracked the safe haven flight to the U.S. dollar, and investments providing exposure to movement in the yuan generated a positive return and exhibited low volatility during the most volatile market environ

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

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