Archive for January 30th, 2010

Long Idea: Canada’s Banks

Very interesting article in Friday’s Financial Times concerning Canada’s banking system.  According to World Economic Forum, Canada has the world’s “soundest” banking system. It is the only country in the G7 that did not have to come to the aid of its financial sector with a state sponsored bailout.

So what makes the Canadian financial system different?  The FT claims that first and foremost its a function of Canadian culture;

Depending on your degree of fondness for Canucks, this thesis comes down to the notion that Canadians are either too nice or too dull to indulge in the no-holds-barred, plundering capitalism that created such a spectacular boom, and eventual bust, in more aggressive societies.

According to the article, there seems to be some consensus revolving around this cultural argument.  In general, the authors make the claim that Canada is a more egalitarian society and less hierarchical in nature.  They tend to spend less on discretionary good and are not as “flashy”  as their southern neighbors.  This culture difference my even trickle down to their business practices: Canadian banks are more conservative at managing credit and market risk.

There is a difference in the actual regulatory structure of the Canadian banking system itself.  Canadian regulators have higher capital requirements, higher quality of capital, and higher leverage ratios than the banking systems of the UK and US.

“We had a tier one capital target of 7 per cent going back to 1999,” she says, referring to the proportion of the bank’s equity considered to be of the highest grade. “We also paid attention to quality of capital, so 75 per cent of that tier one had to be in common shares [as opposed to preferred stock, which is considered a hybrid of equity and debt]. And our leverage ratio [of debt to equity], of 20 to 1, was very important, we think.”

The structural advantage also extends to Canada’s more straightforward and coordinated regulatory frameworks.  The regulator sees its job as setting the rules for the industry, not as a partner in helping the industry grow.  Canada, unlike many other financial centers of the world  does not seem interest in competing to become the heaven for financial capital.

The central bank, which is responsible for the stability of the overall system; the superintendent, responsible for the stability of the financial institutions; a consumer protection agency, which looks out for individuals; and the finance ministry which sets the broad rules on ownership of financial institutions and the design of financial products such as mortgages and tax-deferred investment vehicles. The four actors meet regularly. As a result, says Robert Palter, director at McKinsey in Toronto, “there are no gaps.”

In addition, Chief Executives are held accountable to meet regulatory rules, essentially doubling as the CEO and Chief Risk Officer to some degree.  Does their more conservative attitude have some merit? Is the interest in the Canadian banking system just a reaction to the recent financial crisis.  Its obvious that those companies that took less risk fared better during the spectacular meltdown, but at the same time may fare worse during the booms.  However, that argument does not necessarily hold weight in this instance.  Since 2005, Canadian banks shares have thoroughly beaten their UK and US counterparts.

source: Financial Times

source: Bloomberg

Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY)  has smoked JP Morgan over the last year, generating nearly twice JPM’s return.

One investment strategy could be to buy individual Canadian bank stocks.   Another could be to hold a diversified ETF with heavy exposure to Canandian banks.  The iShares MSCI-Canada – EWC has 33% of its assests invested in Canadian financial services companies with 21% invested in Canada’s 5 largest banks (Royal Bank of Canada, TD, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal and CIBC)

Source: ETFDesk.com

Track this “play” over time – http://www.etfdesk.com/headline.aspx?hId=2151

Daily “Ways-to-Play” The News Before the Moves Weekend Edition

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Greece part of unfolding sovereign debt story

Global investors worldwide are starting to pay more attention to what is unfolding in Greece. Yet most still think of Greece as an isolated case, just as they did for Dubai a few months ago.

sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (IGOV)

sell Templeton Global Income Fund, Inc (GIM);
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

TraderRob’s Instablog – Posts on JEQ — Seeking Alpha

TraderRob’s Instablog – Posts on JEQ — Seeking Alpha

buy Japan Equity Fund (JEQ);

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The Mexico Fund, Inc. Pays Distribution

The Mexico Fund, Inc. Pays Distribution

buy Mexico Fund (MXF);

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The Mexico Fund, Inc. Announces New Location of 2010 Annual …

The Mexico Fund, Inc. Announces New Location of 2010 Annual …

buy Mexico Fund (MXF);

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Mexico’s Stocks End Higher Despite Weak US; Peso Loses Ground

Mexico’s Stocks End Higher Despite Weak US; Peso Loses Ground

buy Mexico Fund (MXF);

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DAVOS-Mexico’s Cordero: likely to increase FX reserves

DAVOS-Mexico’s Cordero: likely to increase FX reserves

buy Mexico Fund (MXF);

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Asia Shares Slide on Resources, Euro Zone Woes

Asia Shares Slide on Resources, Euro Zone Woes

buy Asia Pacific Fund (APB);

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Baring’s Do Says China Sell-Off `Short-Term Correction’

Baring’s Do Says China Sell-Off `Short-Term Correction’

buy Asia Pacific Fund (APB);
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Funds flee Greece as Germany warns of “fatal” eurozone crisis

The deeper concern is Spain, where youth unemployment has reached 44pc and the housing bust has a long way to run. Nouriel Roubini – the economist known as ‘Dr Doom’ – said Spain is too big to contain. “If Greece goes under that’s a problem for the eurozone. If Spain goes under it’s a disaster,” he said.

sell iShares MSCI-Spain (EWP);

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