ETFDesk Daily 12/03/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• Goldman sees Chinese earnings and shares surging in 2010
• Cast your fortunes with index funds
• Web retail a bright spot in tepid U.S. holiday season
• Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Rather Strong’ Growth in 2010-11
• Morgan Stanley raises UAL, AMR to overweight
• The Zweig Fund November Monthly Update
• The Zweig Total Return Fund November Monthly Update
• Housing Market Meltdown Not Over: Zandi
• BofA Cheer Boosts Futures
• Fears grow over US debt market
• General Growth files exit plan, reworks more debt
• U.S. chains miss sales views in weak holiday start
• Global trade disputes Trading blows
• Dave Rosenberg 12/3/2009 THE DOW IS BACK IN A BEAR MARKET
• Pensions Eliminating Stocks Add $40 Billion to Corporate Bonds
• Krugman Says He Plans to Sell Some Brazil Investments

Goldman sees Chinese earnings and shares surging in 2010 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 01:52 AM PST Goldman Sachs is forecasting an upbeat year ahead for China, where the world’s fastest-growing major economy will be underpinned by the “tail winds” of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy stimulus and rebounding corporate earnings. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio (PGJ); buy iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Cast your fortunes with index funds Posted: 02 Dec 2009 02:10 AM PST Investors who continue to send money to actively managed mutual funds in the hope that managers will be able to beat less-costly index funds are going to lose out almost all of the time, a new study finds. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); buy iShares MSCI-EAFE (EFA); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Web retail a bright spot in tepid U.S. holiday season Posted: 02 Dec 2009 03:26 AM PST SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – U.S. online shoppers spent 5 percent more this Cyber Monday than they did last year as more consumers flocked to the Web for holiday shopping but spent slightly less per person, analytics firm comScore Inc said on Wednesday. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Internet HOLDRS (HHH); sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Rather Strong’ Growth in 2010-11 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 03:59 AM PST Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) — The global economy will expand 4.4 percent in 2010 and 4.5 percent the following year as the world recovers from the credit crisis, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Rydex British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB); buy Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust (RSX); sell WisdomTree Dreyfus New Zealand Dollar Fund (BNZ); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Morgan Stanley raises UAL, AMR to overweight Posted: 02 Dec 2009 05:24 AM PST The brokerage noted that Fort Worth, Texas-based AMR’s position was strengthened by its recent liquidity enhancing transactions, particularly at a time when industry trends were on the mend. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore/NYSE Arca Airline ETF (FAA); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Zweig Fund November Monthly Update Posted: 02 Dec 2009 05:35 AM PST The Zweig Fund November Monthly Update ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Zweig Fund (ZF); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Zweig Total Return Fund November Monthly Update Posted: 02 Dec 2009 05:41 AM PST The Zweig Total Return Fund November Monthly Update ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Zweig Total Return Fund (ZTR); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Housing Market Meltdown Not Over: Zandi Posted: 02 Dec 2009 08:45 AM PST The meltdown of the U.S. housing market is not over yet, and home prices will soon start trekking downward again as a flood of foreclosures looms, a well-known economist said Wednesday. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS); sell iShares DJ US Real Estate (IYR); buy MacroShares Major Metro Housing Down (DMM); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

BofA Cheer Boosts Futures Posted: 02 Dec 2009 10:51 PM PST U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday as markets welcomed news that Bank of America reached a deal to repay bailout funds. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy KBW Bank ETF (KBE); buy iShares DJ US Financial Services (IYG); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Fears grow over US debt market Posted: 02 Dec 2009 11:41 PM PST “best-of-all-possible-worlds” assumptions ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR Lehman High Yield Bond ETF (JNK); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

General Growth files exit plan, reworks more debt Posted: 03 Dec 2009 12:08 AM PST General Growth Properties Inc. reached agreements with additional lenders to extend loans on shopping centers and other properties and will ask a judge later this month to approve the plan that so far covers $9.7 billion of its secured debt. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

U.S. chains miss sales views in weak holiday start Posted: 03 Dec 2009 12:20 AM PST CHICAGO (Reuters) – U.S. retailers from Macy’s to Costco posted much weaker-than-expected sales for November as shoppers focused only on big bargains at the start of the key holiday selling season. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Global trade disputes Trading blows Posted: 03 Dec 2009 12:26 AM PST Which countries make most trade complaints? ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 12/3/2009 THE DOW IS BACK IN A BEAR MARKET Posted: 03 Dec 2009 12:29 AM PST That is correct. While the market did make a new high in ‘deflated dollar’ terms just a short two-days ago, in gold terms, the Dow actually peaked on August 27 and is down 13.5% since then. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN);buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Pensions Eliminating Stocks Add $40 Billion to Corporate Bonds Posted: 03 Dec 2009 12:40 AM PST The Plano, Texas-based retailer promised to “eliminate” uncertainty for shareholders caused by underfunded pensions, and will shift some of the money into investment-grade bonds, increasing fixed-income assets to the highest level in the plan’s history, J.C. Penney spokeswoman Darcie Brossart said. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares GS $ InvesTop Corporate Bond Fund (LQD);buy Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Krugman Says He Plans to Sell Some Brazil Investments Posted: 03 Dec 2009 12:42 AM PST Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said he plans to sell some of his investments in Brazil on concern that asset prices are overvalued after record inflows made the real the world’s best performing major currency. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares MSCI-Brazil (EWZ); sell WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund (BZF); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

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ft.com/alphaville : On outperforming the US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Found this post interesting: should really take Friday’s payroll with a grain of salt.

TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Lost 255,000, Jobs in November Wages and Salaries Falling, Not Flat as Reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sausalito, CA — December 2, 2009 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November, the fifteenth consecutive month job losses exceeded 250,000. In the past 12 months, job losses totaled 5.8 million, the second-highest 12-month total since 1970.   “The unemployment rate could easily hit 11% by early next year,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. “Employers are still slashing hundreds of thousands of jobs per month even though the government is spending tens of billions of dollars per month on stimulus programs.”  

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/02/86766/on-outperforming-the-us-bureau-of-economic-analysis/

full release at http://www.trimtabs.com/global/news_releases.htm

ETFDesk Daily 12/02/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• Dave Rosenberg 12/01/2009 How Can the Recession Be Over?
• Marc Faber: Dubai Was Just The Tip of The Sovereign Default Iceberg
• Deep down, even the fiercest equity bulls must be doubting themselves
• China Longyuan I.P.O. Attracts Billionaire Investor
• Gallup Economic Weekly: Thanksgiving Week Disappoints
• Dubai Panic Sparks Few Deals in Emerging-Market Bonds
• Cyber Monday: A lot of clicking and shopping
• JP MORGAN SAYS TO STAY IN THE RISK TRADE
• Russia Must Cut Rate 2 Points This Month, Gilman Says
• Beijing Gives Nod to Modified Rice

Dave Rosenberg 12/01/2009 How Can the Recession Be Over? Posted: 01 Dec 2009 02:50 AM PST HOW CAN THE RECESSION BE OVER? There are four items that go into the NBER recession call: 1. Employment 2. Real personal income excluding government transfers 3. Industrial production 4. Real sales 3 of the 4 economic indicators that the NBER uses to access business cycles are still in decline ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (SDS); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Marc Faber: Dubai Was Just The Tip of The Sovereign Default Iceberg Posted: 01 Dec 2009 03:49 AM PST Marc Faber warns that further sovereign defaults are ahead. Dubai was just a teaser. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (IGOV); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Deep down, even the fiercest equity bulls must be doubting themselves Posted: 01 Dec 2009 04:31 AM PST We have just had the worst decade’s performance for equity investors on record. Relative to government bonds, equities have been an even bigger disaster. Surely after such a terrible decade for equity investors things can only get better? ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (SDS); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD); buyPIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

China Longyuan I.P.O. Attracts Billionaire Investor Posted: 01 Dec 2009 06:32 AM PST An American billionaire investor, Wilbur L. Ross, plans to buy shares of China Longyuan Power Group, the largest wind power generator in Asia Follow the billionaire – 26% China Weighting in TAN ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF (TAN); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Gallup Economic Weekly: Thanksgiving Week Disappoints Posted: 01 Dec 2009 08:08 AM PST PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup’s Thanksgiving week results tend to confirm fears of a weak holiday sales season as consumer spending was unchanged from the prior week, even though it included Friday and Saturday of the Black Friday weekend. At the same time, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index and its Job Creation Index were essentially unchanged from the prior week. A rather gloomy consumer mood and consumer spending — trailing last year’s financial crisis-depressed comparables by 25% - ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS (RTH); sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT); sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund (RTL); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dubai Panic Sparks Few Deals in Emerging-Market Bonds Posted: 01 Dec 2009 09:34 AM PST emerging-market bonds overall have proved very good, though volatile, investments. Investors have endured some stomach-churning drops during the crises, but someone who held a broad basket of those bonds in a mutual fund, which reduces your exposure to individual issuers, has done well. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt (MSD); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Cyber Monday: A lot of clicking and shopping Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:48 PM PST Report says sales rose 14% over last year and shoppers on average spent more online than they did on Black Friday. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Internet HOLDRS (HHH); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

JP MORGAN SAYS TO STAY IN THE RISK TRADE Posted: 01 Dec 2009 11:48 PM PST The latest portfolio strategy from JP Morgan continues to favor the bullish side of the trade. They see the Dubai dip as an opportunity to buy into some emerging market names at a discount. Dubai does little to change their outlook as the risk of contagion remains very low. This means the risk trade lives to fight another day. Thus, they continue to favor a broad overweight of emerging market bonds, credit, equities and currencies. In other words, they like the highest of t ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC); buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN); buy S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); buy iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets (EEM); buy MFS Government Markets Income Trust (MGF); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Russia Must Cut Rate 2 Points This Month, Gilman Says Posted: 01 Dec 2009 11:57 PM PST The central bank on Nov. 24 cut the benchmark a ninth time since April to a record low 9 percent in an effort to reduce the extra return on ruble investments and cap speculative gains in the currency that are hurting exporters. Even after policy easing, Russia remains a “no-brainer for the short-term carry trade,” Gilman said, as the country’s benchmark is still higher than rates in Brazil, India and China. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Currency Shares Russian Ruble Trust (XRU); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Beijing Gives Nod to Modified Rice

Posted: 02 Dec 2009 12:00 AM PST

China’s government declared two strains of genetically modified rice safe to produce and consume, taking a major step toward endorsing the use of biotechnology in the staple food crop of billions of people in Asia.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors–Agribusiness ETF (MOO);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETFDesk Daily 12/01/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• 5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF
• Dave Rosenberg 11/30/2009 KEEP AN EYE ON THE CREDIT MARKETS AGAIN
• Tail Risk in Sovereign CDS
• How overbuilt is China?
• Why Black Friday Data Points To A Grim Holiday Season
• Hussman: 80% Chance Of A Market Crash Over The Next Year
• Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010
• Morgan Stanley: Here Comes A Brutal 2010
• GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009

 

5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:15 AM PST Strategists at Credit Suisse are currently expecting a near-term equity sell-off, but are not yet concerned about the downturn evolving into a larger bear market decline. Why have they turned a bit more cautious? A series of psychological, fundamental and technical events: ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ); sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 11/30/2009 KEEP AN EYE ON THE CREDIT MARKETS AGAIN Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:42 AM PST Buying call options on volatility has rarely looked as attractive as is the case today if this Dubai situation turns into something even fractionally similar to what happened in places like Thailand, Russia or Argentina. Once the complacency is shaken out of the market, which in our view would be a good thing, it is going to give those who have been skeptical over this “liquidity-induced” rally a chance to take out our rulers and sharpen our pencils. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ); buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Tail Risk in Sovereign CDS

Posted: 30 Nov 2009 04:32 AM PST

Will the tail wag the dog again? Or, more specifically, will the rise of sovereign credit default swaps drive pricing in government bond markets? The Dubai shock has highlighted disconnects between the two markets. The traditional flight-to-safety bid led U.S. Treasurys and U.K. gilts to rally sharply. But the nature of the shock – a reminder that governments have balance-sheet constraints – pushed up the cost of insuring even high-quality sovereigns against default. That suggests

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (IGOV);

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

How overbuilt is China? Posted: 30 Nov 2009 05:32 AM PST LATELY, Tyler Cowen has been pushing an Austrian view of economic activity in China, namely, that government policies are generating far too much investment in certain sectors of the Chinese economy, setting the stage for an eventual collapse as resources are re-allocated back to productive uses. Over the weekend, Mr Cowen developed the argument in a New York Times piece: ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI); sell Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF (TAO); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Why Black Friday Data Points To A Grim Holiday Season Posted: 30 Nov 2009 07:21 AM PST If you were counting on what Glenn Reynolds calls “the retail support brigade” to come riding over the hills, you might want to rethink. After last year turned in one of the worst holiday shopping seasons in decades, people were hoping that things might perk up this year, but Black Friday’s results don’t look too good for retailers. Sales were up a paltry 0.5% from last year, and that only because a lot more people came out bargain-hunting. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS (RTH); sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT); sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund (RTL); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Hussman: 80% Chance Of A Market Crash Over The Next Year Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:13 PM PST Fund manager John Hussman says he under-estimated how little investors have learned in the market crashes of recent years and thus has missed much of the market upside this year ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA); buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT); buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (SDS); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM); buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (TENZ); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010 Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:06 AM PST Britain risks becoming the first country in the G10 bloc of major economies to risk capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis over coming months, according to a client note by Morgan Stanley. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (IGOV); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion   Morgan Stanley: Here Comes A Brutal 2010 Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:16 AM PST Morgan Stanley’s head of European research Teun Draaisma is out with a market outlook for 2010, and it’s not pretty. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P Europe 350 Index (IEV); sell iShares MSCI-EAFE (EFA); sell iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index Fund (SCZ); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion   GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009 Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:46 AM PST GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009 ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Greater China Fund, Inc. (GCH); Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETFDesk Daily 11/25/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• J.P. Morgan: U.S. Dollar Carry Trade a ‘Half Truth’
• US shoppers wait for sales
• As Black Friday Looms, Will Consumers Show Up?
• Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’?
• Closed-end fund discounts explained
• Thai Capital Fund Announces Third Quarter Earnings
• Round-Up of Holiday Spending Surveys, Reports
• Most global banks are still unsafe, warns S&P
• Newspaper circulation may be worse than it looks
• Russian central bank cuts interest rates to record low
• Time to Prick the Ag Commodities Bubble
• Mayors Sound Alarm Over Drop in City Revenues
• Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast
• Debunking carry-trade denial
• UK GDP revised…
• More bid rumours in the UK utility sector

J.P. Morgan: U.S. Dollar Carry Trade a ‘Half Truth’ Posted: 24 Nov 2009 02:37 AM PST By the usual cover story test – a trend reverses once it becomes a cover story in the popular press – the dollar’s decline should have ended this fall. But despite the bearish dollar patter, there is little evidence that views are so extreme or positions so short that they should impede the current bear trend. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund; buy ProShares Ultra Euro; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

US shoppers wait for sales Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:14 AM PST US shopping patterns for early November suggest budget-conscious consumers are holding back their Christmas spending, while waiting to be enticed by special events such as this weekend’s post-Thanksgiving sales. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; sell Claymore/Robb Report Global Luxury Index ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

As Black Friday Looms, Will Consumers Show Up? Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:43 AM PST Black Friday marks the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, but retailers still aren’t sure how strong a showing consumers will make. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’? Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:44 AM PST If you own any shares in alternative energy companies I should start dumping them NOW. The conspiracy behind the Anthropogenic Global Warming myth (aka AGW; aka ManBearPig) has been suddenly, brutally and quite deliciously exposed after a hacker broke into the computers at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (aka Hadley CRU) and released 61 megabites of confidential files onto the internet. (Hat tip: Watts Up With That) ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio; sell Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Closed-end fund discounts explained Posted: 24 Nov 2009 03:50 AM PST The discount is what makes closed-end funds such interesting and potentially profitable investment vehicles Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Thai Capital Fund Announces Third Quarter Earnings Posted: 24 Nov 2009 04:00 AM PST Thai Capital Fund Announces Third Quarter Earnings ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Thai Capital Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Round-Up of Holiday Spending Surveys, Reports Posted: 24 Nov 2009 04:43 AM PST If the following round-up of holiday spending surveys and news reports (with salient quotes) is anything to go by, those who have been counting on a V-shaped recovery in the (consumer-dependent) U.S. economy might want to reconsider ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; sell Claymore/Robb Report Global Luxury Index ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Most global banks are still unsafe, warns S&P Posted: 24 Nov 2009 05:35 AM PST Standard & Poor’s has given warning that nearly all of the world’s big banks lack sufficient capital to cover trading and investment exposure, risking further downgrades over the next 18 months unless they move swiftly to beef up their defences. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Financial Preferred Portfolio; sell iShares S&P Global Financials; sell iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Newspaper circulation may be worse than it looks Posted: 24 Nov 2009 05:54 AM PST These looser standards are especially helpful to a newspaper if it sells an “electronic edition.” That can include a subscriber-only Web site, such as what The Wall Street Journal has, or it can be a digital replica of a newspaper’s printed product. Several dozen publications, including USA Today, sell access to these daily “e-editions” that show how the news was laid out in print. Under the new auditing standards, if a newspaper sells a “bundled” subscription to both the print ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Dynamic Media Portfolio; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Russian central bank cuts interest rates to record low Posted: 24 Nov 2009 06:06 AM PST Russia’s central bank has cut interest rates from 9.5% to a record low of 9% in a widely expected move. It is the ninth time the bank has cut rates since April this year as it bids to stimulate demand. In an accompanying statement, the central bank said it had room to cut as inflation had been easing back. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Currency Shares Russian Ruble Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Time to Prick the Ag Commodities Bubble Posted: 24 Nov 2009 08:40 AM PST Investors can play a likely falloff in ag prices by shorting an exchange-traded fund, such as the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (ticker: DBA) or, as a secondary play, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO). (Alternately, investors could buy put options in order to bet on declines in ETF values.) ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund; sell Market Vectors–Agribusiness ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Mayors Sound Alarm Over Drop in City Revenues Posted: 24 Nov 2009 02:52 PM PST Even as economists declare the recession over, local revenues continue to fall. That’s because the lion’s share of their receipts — sales, income and property taxes — are connected to the job market and real-estate prices. Jobs and real-estate prices are expected to lag the broader economic recovery, reducing city revenues for months or years after the technical end of the recession. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast Posted: 24 Nov 2009 11:54 PM PST Spending by U.S. consumers rebounded in October more than anticipated, an indication that mounting unemployment has yet to stifle American’s willingness to buy. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares Dynamic Retail Portfolio; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Debunking carry-trade denial Posted: 25 Nov 2009 12:04 AM PST In the last few weeks a host of different banks have stepped forward to question both the depth and degree of the current dollar carry trade. Among them have been Goldman Sachs, UBS and Barclays Capital – all claiming the risks of executing speculative dollar-funded carry trades still outweigh the potential returns, meaning the trade isn’t half as popular as the market is making out, nor is it contributing to any such thing as a global asset bubble. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

UK GDP revised… Posted: 25 Nov 2009 12:43 AM PST Still, there is some good news in today’s release. The inventory run-down may have ended and should make a positive contribution in the fourth quarter. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-U.K.; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

More bid rumours in the UK utility sector Posted: 25 Nov 2009 12:56 AM PST Rumours of predatory interest in the UK utility sector has been swirling for a few weeks now with several names mentioned including United Utilities and Severn Trent. However, the speculation has now focused on one company: International Power, which owns and operates power plants across Europe, the Persian Gulf, the US, Australia, Pakistan, Thailand and Indonesia. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore S&P Global Water Index ETF; buy PowerShares Global Water Portfolio; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

ETFDesk Daily 11/24/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

 

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

 

• Could sovereign debt be the new subprime?
• Mexico’s Credit Rating Cut by Fitch on Fiscal Outlook
• Utility players
• City of London’s Corporate Governance and Voting Policy for Closed-End Funds
• ETF Investing, With a Twist
• China Wants to Slow Credit Boom
• Citi Research: Nightmare on Commodity Street
• Rand firms as South Africa exits recession
• Gold stocks pricing in $940/oz long-term gold price
• Medtronic Profit Soars 59%, Boosts Forecast
• Now Chinese banks are under-capitalised
• Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government
• Forecasters See Dollar Decline Next Year
• Case-Shiller: Home Price Recovery Stumbles, Results Worse Than Expected
• A Mad Rush as Gold Bugs Get the Boot

 

Could sovereign debt be the new subprime? Posted: 23 Nov 2009 02:20 AM PST A few weeks ago, Claudio Borio, head of research at the Bank for International Settlements, warned in a solemn note to Group of 20 leaders that modern financial policymakers are “driving while just looking in the rear-view mirror”: western finance officials have focused so much on past risks that they fail to spot new dangers. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR DB International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF; sell iShares S&P/Citigroup 1-3 Year International Treasury Bond Fund; sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Mexico’s Credit Rating Cut by Fitch on Fiscal Outlook Posted: 23 Nov 2009 03:30 AM PST “The global economic and financial crisis and falling oil production have accentuated weaknesses in the sovereign’s fiscal profile,’ Fitch said in a statement. “These weaknesses limit Mexico’s fiscal maneuverability in the face of future oil income shocks.” ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares MSCI-Mexico; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Utility players Posted: 23 Nov 2009 03:34 AM PST uying utility shares not only garners a yield nearly three times as high as the broader US stock market but often yields more than utilities’ own debt. Mr Gross reasons that, since governments seem inclined to allow all types of other businesses to earn only utility-type returns, one may as well invest in a sector already priced for such an outcome. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR-Utilities; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

City of London’s Corporate Governance and Voting Policy for Closed-End Funds Posted: 23 Nov 2009 04:58 AM PST City of London’s Corporate Governance and Voting Policy for Closed-End Funds Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETF Investing, With a Twist Posted: 23 Nov 2009 05:19 AM PST ETF Portfolio Management is using ETFs to create a twist on a hedge-fund strategy called “trend following,” which bets on sustained price movements to make returns with low correlation to the broad market. Trend-following funds are part of a group managing $92 billion that returned 18% last year when broader markets plunged, according to Hedge Fund Research. ETF Portfolio Management’s funds and the broad group of trend-following hedge funds have slightly negative returns in 2009. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

China Wants to Slow Credit Boom Posted: 23 Nov 2009 07:39 AM PST Chinese banking regulators are putting pressure on the country’s banks to raise more capital and temper their rapid growth in lending, in a clear sign of official concern about the sustainability of the nation’s credit boom, senior Chinese bankers said Monday. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio; sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Citi Research: Nightmare on Commodity Street Posted: 23 Nov 2009 08:36 AM PST Thousands of very smart speculators have accumulated the biggest ever speculative physical raw material positions ever witnessed in the belief that either the dollar will collapse or an ongoing global ‘Supercycle’ will shake off the effects of the credit crunch and resume business as usual. They are funded in this venture by some of the lowest interest rates on record. What are the threats to their thesis?. They are as follows : ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund; sell iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN; buyPowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short Exchange Traded Note; sell iPath Dow Jones-AIG Industrial Metals Total Return Sub-Inde ETN; sell iPathSM Dow Jones-AIG Nickel Total Return Sub-Index ETN; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Rand firms as South Africa exits recession Posted: 23 Nov 2009 10:54 PM PST The South African rand firmed on Tuesday after the country exited its first recession. A better-than-forecast gross domestic product figure for the third quarter, after three consecutive quarters of decline, meant that the country’s monetary loosening cycle was over. The rand edged up 0.1 per cent to R7.4583 against the dollar. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-South Africa; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Gold stocks pricing in $940/oz long-term gold price Posted: 23 Nov 2009 10:57 PM PST Take your top tier gold stocks and calculate the types of price scenarios their share prices are currently pricing in: ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF; buy Junior Gold Miners ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Medtronic Profit Soars 59%, Boosts Forecast Posted: 23 Nov 2009 10:57 PM PST …strong revenue growth and an implantable defibrillator business that appeared to shrug off problems affecting rivals. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Now Chinese banks are under-capitalised Posted: 23 Nov 2009 10:57 PM PST China’s five largest banks submitted preliminary plans for raising capital to the industry regulator after they extended unprecedented amounts of new loans this year, according to four people with knowledge of the matter. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio; sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government Posted: 23 Nov 2009 11:01 PM PST Treasury officials now face a trifecta of headaches: a mountain of new debt, a balloon of short-term borrowings that come due in the months ahead, and interest rates that are sure to climb back to normal as soon as the Federal Reserve decides that the emergency has passed. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Forecasters See Dollar Decline Next Year Posted: 24 Nov 2009 12:19 AM PST The top performing forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey of 46 firms predict the dollar will continue falling next year. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF; buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust; buy Rydex Euro Currency Trust; buy Junior Gold Miners ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Case-Shiller: Home Price Recovery Stumbles, Results Worse Than Expected Posted: 24 Nov 2009 12:30 AM PST Home prices fell 9.4% in September, according to the widely-respected S&P/Case-Shiller housing index. Analysts had been looking for a 9.1% decline, so this is a bit worse than expected. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell iShares DJ US Real Estate; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

A Mad Rush as Gold Bugs Get the Boot Posted: 24 Nov 2009 12:35 AM PST Fleets of armored trucks piled with gold bars and coins have been streaming out of midtown Manhattan in one unexpected consequence of the gold craze. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETFDesk Daily 11/23/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• “Black Friday” deals may not signal retail comeback
• Banks’ Capital Adequacy Ratios Still Need Improvement – S&P
• Bets rise on rich country bond defaults
• Dave Rosenberg 11/23/2009 Utility in Utilities

 

“Black Friday” deals may not signal retail comeback Posted: 22 Nov 2009 01:07 PM PST CHICAGO (Reuters) – When the U.S. holiday shopping season kicks off on the day after Thanksgiving, retailers can expect to see millions of less frightened, but even more bargain-hungry customers cross their thresholds. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Banks’ Capital Adequacy Ratios Still Need Improvement – S&P Posted: 22 Nov 2009 10:59 PM PST Most major banks across the world still don’t have enough capital to comfortably maintain their credit ratings despite recent improvements, Standard & Poor’s Corp. said in a report Monday, as it introduced a new framework to track banks’ capital adequacy and called into question the usefulness of standard market and regulatory measures. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR-Financial; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Bets rise on rich country bond defaults Posted: 23 Nov 2009 12:05 AM PST The volume of activity in sovereign credit default swaps – which measure the cost to insure against bond defaults – linked to the US, UK and Japan have doubled in the past year because of concerns about their public finances. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares MSCI-Italy; sell iShares S&P/Citigroup 1-3 Year International Treasury Bond Fund; sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 11/23/2009 Utility in Utilities

Posted: 23 Nov 2009 12:46 AM PST

In a deflationary environment, price protection from regulators is always key as is yield to investors. At 4.5%, not only is the dividend yield in the utilities sector the second highest among all S&P 500 groups (only telecom is higher at 5.7%) but is more than double the yield of the S&P 500; at least as high as what you can garner from the debt of most utility companies; and is more than the yield you can get from the long bond (and more than twice the yield of the 5-year Treasury note).

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR-Utilities; buy iShares S&P Global Infrastructure Index Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

ETFDesk Daily 11/19/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

 

• How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market?
• Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap
• John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold
• Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’
• Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!
• The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update
• The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update
• The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer
• A yuan-sided argument
• Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers
• Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets
• Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch
• VIX of the VIX
• The World’s Largest Shopping Mall
• BofA Merrill cuts ‘10 global semiconductor growth view
• Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt
• Roach: China’s Market Will Crumble
• Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference
• Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise
• Brazil sparks wider currency control fears

 

How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market? Posted: 18 Nov 2009 02:55 AM PST great chart from The Big Picture blog ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:32 AM PST Central bank hoarding of gold in 1970 ushered in the famous gold bull market. With central banks likely to be net gold purchasers in H2 2009 for the first time since 1988 the same starting gun is ringing out today. The price at which the USD would be fully backed by gold (as it was during the peak of the 70s mania) is $6,300. So there is a case for gold being “cheap.” Moreover, the 70s bull market was facilitated by tight energy markets, overly accommodative central banks and nerv ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold Posted: 18 Nov 2009 04:35 AM PST John Paulson, who scored about $20 billion of profits for his hedge fund between 2007 and early 2009 wagering against the housing market and financial companies, is launching a fund dedicated to buying up shares of gold miners and other bullion-related investments, according to three investors. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF; buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’ Posted: 18 Nov 2009 06:35 AM PST Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; sell iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets; sell iShares MSCI-EAFE; buy UBS E Tracs CMCI Food Tr; buy iPath Dow Jones AIG Sugar Total Return Sub Index; buy iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund; buyPIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein! Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:12 AM PST Classic title Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:25 AM PST The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Asia Pacific Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:26 AM PST The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Greater China Fund, Inc.; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:31 AM PST The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Taiwan Greater China Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

A yuan-sided argument Posted: 18 Nov 2009 07:59 AM PST China allowed the yuan to rise by 21% against the dollar in the three years to July 2008, but since then it has more or less kept the rate fixed. As a result, the yuan’s trade-weighted value has been dragged down this year by the sickly dollar, while many other currencies have soared. Since March the Brazilian real and the South Korean won have gained 42% and 36% respectively against the yuan, seriously eroding those countries’ competitiveness. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers Posted: 18 Nov 2009 09:43 AM PST Some retailers are finding ways to profit even in the face of declining sales. On Tuesday, luxury retailer Saks Inc. reported a surprise profit and Target Corp. notched its first rise in year-over-year net income in eight quarters. But both companies reported declines in sales at stores open for a year, and predicted more of the same in the current quarter, which includes Christmas. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets Posted: 18 Nov 2009 01:14 PM PST With the Fed in a holding pattern, markets have looked to economic data for their biggest moves in the last six months and that trend is likely to continue, Goldman Sachs economists said. “With the unemployment rate high, we expect the markets to continue to focus on employment data for indications of labor market improvement,” Goldman economists wrote in a research note. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR-Financial; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell iShares Russell 2000; buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:17 PM PST Investors are piling into any commodity they can get their hands on as the dollar crumbles and real assets spike. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Claymore/Clear Global Timber Index ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

VIX of the VIX Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:32 PM PST The volatility of the CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) in recent days is especially noteworthy as the measure of implied volatility in the S & P 500 Index (SPX) is once again bouncing near year-to-date lows. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The World’s Largest Shopping Mall Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:37 PM PST A cautionary tale of capitalist hubris. An amazing video from PBS. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; sell SPDR S&P China ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

BofA Merrill cuts ‘10 global semiconductor growth view Posted: 18 Nov 2009 11:50 PM PST BofA Merrill Lynch lowered its 2010 growth forecast for global semiconductor industry and downgraded ten chipmakers, including Intel Corp (INTC.O), turning more cautious on the group on expectations of a modest overshoot in global supply chain inventories. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF; sell iShares Goldman Sachs Semiconductor Index; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:15 AM PST San Francisco-based Wells Fargo agreed to buy back all auction rate securities it sold through its brokerage unit before Feb. 13, 2008, the association said in a statement. The bank also will pay a $1.9 million fine and reimburse investors who sold their holdings at a discount after the market collapsed. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Roach: China’s Market Will Crumble Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:42 AM PST Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach still believes in the long-term China story, but he warns investors to wait for a much-needed market correction first. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; sell SPDR S&P China ETF; sell Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap Index ETF; buy UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference Posted: 19 Nov 2009 12:53 AM PST Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:00 AM PST That’s why I recommend you spread your risk and go with a well-diversified, closed-end fund that invests in hundreds of Senior Secured Floating Rate bonds at once. Such an approach ensures the impact of any bankruptcy is minimal. It also provides daily liquidity. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy First Trust/Four Corners Senior Floating Rate Income II; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Brazil sparks wider currency control fears Posted: 19 Nov 2009 01:03 AM PST Brazil moved overnight to close a loophole that had allowed investors to avoid a 2 per cent tax on foreign investment in equities and bonds announced last month. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

 

 

 

 

ETFDesk Daily 11/18/2009

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Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

 

• Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance
• Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped
• Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009
• Gold – the next bubble?
• Goldman Sachs: “V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely”
• TF Oct Monthly Update
• Altman Group hosted CEF conference
• Michael Panzner: Commercial Real Estate Is A “Tsunami Unfolding”
• The Great Wallop : Chimerica
• Explorers’ Self-Deflating Gas Cushion
• Hands warns governments on banks
• Africa: Corruption Perception – Nigeria’s Rating Worsens
• Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains
• It’s Quiet…Too Quiet
• U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts
• the Geography of the Recession
• Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction
• The Case for the Chinese Yuan

 

Confronting the China-U.S. Economic Imbalance Posted: 17 Nov 2009 02:06 AM PST Great Info from the Council on Foreign Relations ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR S&P China ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Freshest Data Shows The Recovery Is Nowhere Near V-Shaped Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:01 AM PST This data appears to be at odds with the inflationary environment gold, commodities and equities have been giving off. Perhaps more important in this data is the fact that it shows investors are simply moving out of dollars and into real assets – not as a sign of inflation worries loom, but as investors lose faith in the longevity of the United States and the paper we print our money on. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund; sell PowerShares DB Oil Fund; buyUltraShort S&P 500 ProShares; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Dave Rosenberg 11/17/2009 Posted: 17 Nov 2009 04:42 AM PST Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher suggested yesterday that the Q3 real GDP print will be taken down from 3.5% at an annual rate to 2.5% ? despite massive government stimulus. (Is that all you get for your money?) And the Philadelphia Fed survey of professional forecasters shows that this collection of 41 economists just took down their 2010 Q1 GDP call to 2.3% from 2.5% and for next year?s Q2 to 2.4% from 2.8%. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell S&P 500 SPDR; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Gold – the next bubble? Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:42 AM PST WHAT are the preconditions for a bubble? Perhaps there are four: easy credit conditions, a significant trend-breaking event, the lack of plausible valuation measures and an appealing story. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Goldman Sachs: “V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely” Posted: 17 Nov 2009 05:55 AM PST Despite the sharp pickup in real GDP growth since the dark days of early 2009, we estimate that real final demand—net of the boost from fiscal policy—is still contracting at an annual rate of around 1% in the second half of 2009. Although we expect a moderate recovery of around 2% by the second half of 2010, such a 3-percentage-point improvement would be insufficient to offset the loss of 4-5 percentage points of stimulus from fiscal policy and the inventory cycle. Hence, real G ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund; sellS&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock; sell streetTRACKS Gold Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

TF Oct Monthly Update Posted: 17 Nov 2009 06:10 AM PST The Thai Capital Fund October Monthly Update ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Thai Capital Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Altman Group hosted CEF conference Posted: 17 Nov 2009 06:22 AM PST Altman Group hosted CEF conference…Here is link for replay if interested Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Michael Panzner: Commercial Real Estate Is A “Tsunami Unfolding” Posted: 17 Nov 2009 09:18 AM PST Today, Panzner calls a V-shaped recovery “ridiculous,” says commercial real estate is a bubble sure to burst, and is fearful that there’s far too much speculation on commodities, risky stocks and emerging markets. In short, he says “the world is a riskier place and will continue to stay that way going forward.” ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund; sell PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund; sell PowerShares DB Oil Fund; buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sellstreetTRACKS Gold Trust; sell iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Great Wallop : Chimerica Posted: 17 Nov 2009 09:43 AM PST A FEW years ago we came up with the term “Chimerica” to describe the combination of the Chinese and American economies, which together had become the key driver of the global economy. With a combined 13 percent of the world’s land surface and around a quarter of its population, Chimerica nevertheless accounted for a third of global economic output and two-fifths of worldwide growth from 1998 to 2007. Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Explorers’ Self-Deflating Gas Cushion Posted: 17 Nov 2009 01:42 PM PST With producers still collectively pursuing growth, the chances of a rebound in gas prices next year looks more remote than ever. Yet the S&P Supercomposite oil and gas E&P index—weighted 69% to gas production—commands a forward price/earnings multiple of 22 times. Such confidence is the very thing causing the industry to drill its way into trouble. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund; sell United States Natural Gas Fund, LP; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Hands warns governments on banks Posted: 17 Nov 2009 10:58 PM PST Guy Hands, head of private equity house Terra Firma, warned on Wednesday that unless governments pushed banks to restructure $7,000bn of leveraged loans that are due to mature by 2014, the US and Europe could face the “Japanese problem” of zero growth. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell ING Prime Rate Trust; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Africa: Corruption Perception – Nigeria’s Rating Worsens Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:08 PM PST Nigeria dropped nine places to 130th position out of the 180 countries ranked on the global Corruption Perceptions Index Nigera allocation is 17% of AFK ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Market Vectors-Africa Index ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Microsoft Bing Investments Starting to Pay Off In Market Share Gains Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:11 PM PST Bing search engine continues to make incremental gains in search share, with new numbers bringing Bing’s share closer to double digits. SWH – 21% MSFT ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Software HOLDRS; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

It’s Quiet…Too Quiet Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:21 PM PST In that vein, Pat Neal, Jefferies’ stock and derivatives strategist, is telling clients to use the lull in the VIX to hedge stock portfolios. He sees a hidden disconnect between quiescent VIX and its component stocks that could spell trouble for stocks. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

U.S. consumers expect deep holiday discounts Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:33 PM PST Almost 70 percent of consumers surveyed said they wanted to see discounts of at least 50 percent before they would buy something for the holidays, according to the survey by America’s Research Group. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

the Geography of the Recession Posted: 17 Nov 2009 11:40 PM PST very interesting map of unemployment Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Mobius Sees 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Buy on Correction Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:16 AM PST Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — Mark Mobius said stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to rise by 30 to 40 percent within three to four years as higher economic growth and lower government debt spurs corporate earnings. ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25; buy iShares MSCI-Brazil; buy iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets; buy SPDR S&P BRIC 40 ETF; buy Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust; buy iPath MSCI India Index ETN; buyiShares MSCI BRIC Index Fund; buy Templeton Emerging Markets Fund, Inc; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Case for the Chinese Yuan Posted: 18 Nov 2009 12:38 AM PST Investors may look back at the liquidity crisis of 2008 as the inflection point that affirmed China as a global economic superpower. During this time, the majority of emerging market currencies suffered as investors fled higher-risk currencies. However, the Chinese yuan largely tracked the safe haven flight to the U.S. dollar, and investments providing exposure to movement in the yuan generated a positive return and exhibited low volatility during the most volatile market environ ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund; Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion